3835 GARDINER Fry #3 · Vina, CA 96021

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1980 871 sqft lot Est $119k · 37% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO THE WOODSON BRIDGE SENIOR PARK, ONE OF THE MOST WELL DESIRED PARKS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FEATURING A VERY LARGE LIVING ROOM. A COUNTRY STYLE KITCHEN WITH LOTS OF COUNTER SPACE AND AMPLE CUPBOARD SPACE. LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM AND 2 GOOD SIZED BEDROOMS. OUTSIDE HAS A CUTE BACK YARD WITH A WORK SHED. THERE IS A LONG CARPORT THAT SHOULD HOLD 2 CARS. THE PARK FEATURES A HUGE CLUB HOUSE, NICE SIZE SWIMMING POOL AND JACUZZI. JUST ACCROSS THE WAY FROM THE PARK IS THE HISTORICAL SACRAMENTO RIVER. THERE IS A NICE STORE JUST DOWN THE ROAD FOR ALL OF THE NECESSARY ITEMS YOU MAY NEED AS WELL. DO NOT MISS OUT ON THIS WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME IN SUCH A BEAUTIFUL SENIOR COMMUNITY!

Key facts

• Cute back yard
• Swimming pool
• Work shed

Tags

• COUNTRY STYLE KITCHEN
• CUTE BACK YARD
• WORK SHED
• HUGE CLUB HOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• JACUZZI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $720
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Senior community; Community amenities include horse trails, golf course, biking, hiking, fishing, and park access

Exterior

• Parking: Located in the Woodson Bridge park
• Utilities: Shared well water; Community septic
• Home design: Single-story home; Mobile home (model LAJ1593); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Built (year source: Assessor); Mobile construction; 31 ft by 40 ft unit dimensions
• Exterior features: Community pool; Front yard; Back yard; 0–1 unit per acre

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathtub in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Entry is on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,345 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.87%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,560
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	23mo	$95,000	$76	81
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #1	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	3mo	$135,000	$95	75
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd Rd #76	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (-2%)	24mo	$115,000	$94	72
3835 GARDINER Fry #95	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$115,000	$100	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $25,598
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $70,889
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96021

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 218 DOM
18. 2026-03-26
    price $75,000
19. 2025-10-24
    listed $90,000 Active
20. 2025-07-17
    historical
21. 2024-09-03
    price $99,000
22. 2024-07-20
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $5,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning Union High
• NCES district ID: 0609810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,060
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #12925
• State rank: #1151 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vina

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #26820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,076

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.81%
• Current HPI: 272.9407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listed $125,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +111.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.