1015 Elbert St · Darien, GA 31305

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1980 0.28 ac lot Est $284k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated Home with Bonus Space & Backyard Retreat• 3 bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms• Functional layout with added flexibility• Remodeled kitchen• Updated flooring and interior paint• Move-in ready condition• Large bonus room / office / flex space– Can be used as a home office– Playroom or second living area– Potential 4th bedroom option• Backyard designed as a private getaway– Open patio for entertaining– Fully fenced yard– Large shop — ideal for hobbies, storage, or workspace• Expanded driveway providing additional parking• USDA eligible• Convenient location:– Approximately 3 minutes to B &a

Key facts

• Private getaway
• Open patio
• Large bonus room

Tags

• BACKYARD RETREAT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• PRIVATE GETAWAY
• OPEN PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.0% in Darien — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#397 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcintosh County (town): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #118 of 174 in GA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,284
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1202 Market St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$229,000	$148	80
1202 Market St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$229,000	$148	80
309 Haven Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+2%)	6mo	$335,000	$211	73
1213 Market St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	4mo	$275,000	$195	69
1125 Old River Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-10%)	9mo	$280,000	$198	67
1202 Market St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,469 (-6%)	8mo	$205,000	$140	67
500 Clarke St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+10%)	9mo	$200,000	$116	58
286 Bridgewater Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-12%)	3mo	$270,000	$198	55
286 Bridgewater Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-12%)	3mo	$270,000	$198	55
282 Bridgewater Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-12%)	4mo	$249,050	$182	53
505 Madison St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+9%)	4mo	$304,500	$179	50
500 Ridge Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (+10%)	10mo	$291,000	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $185,661
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $531,347
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31305

• Home prices YoY: 20.2%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,563/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $393	+0% $307	+5% $221	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $191	+0% $307	+5% $424	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $385	base $307	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 Wayne St Darien, GA	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,950	$1.99	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $305,000 Active
3. 2025-09-12
   price $299,000
4. 2025-01-30
   soldstatus $225,000
5. 2024-08-05
   historical
6. 2024-05-07
   price $265,000
7. 2024-04-11
   status Active
8. 2024-04-05
   status Pending
9. 2024-03-10
   price $280,000
10. 2024-02-17
    listed $299,000 Active
11. 2024-02-02
    soldstatus $349,000
12. 2024-01-29
    soldstatus $209,000 Closed
13. 2023-12-08
    status Pending
14. 2023-12-07
    listed $209,000 Active
15. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus $110,000
16. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus $110,000
17. 2018-08-10
    listed $122,000
18. 2004-10-26
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,563 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,563 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$3,563
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$1,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$314
• After-tax cash flow: $3,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcintosh County
• NCES district ID: 1303600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,742
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8188
• State rank: #118 of 174 in GA

Livability — Darien

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #19613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Darien, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,119

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,922 people
• By 2030: 12,156 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 10,332 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 5,506 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,635 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 31% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.5% · R 64.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.35%
• Current HPI: 311.3591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+369.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $305,000 GIAR
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $299,000 GIAR
• 2025-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-05 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $265,000 GIAR
• 2024-04-11 Relisted — GIAR
• 2024-04-05 Pending — GIAR
• 2024-03-10 Price Changed $280,000 GIAR
• 2024-02-17 Listed $299,000 GIAR
• 2024-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $349,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-29 Sold (MLS) $209,000 GIAR
• 2023-12-08 Pending — GIAR
• 2023-12-07 Listed $209,000 GIAR
• 2018-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) $110,000 GIAR
• 2018-08-10 Listed $122,000 GIAR
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,563 · +29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.