14103 Spring Knoll Ln · Pearland, TX 77583

$289,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2004 10,754 sqft lot Est $311k · 7% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home on an oversized lot in a desirable neighborhood. Features a spacious open layout with a move-in ready feel, offering plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. Property is in great condition and includes all appliances. Recent major upgrade includes a brand new roof installed just weeks ago, adding long-term value and peace of mind for the next owner. A solid opportunity for buyers looking for comfort, space, and value in a well-established neighborhood.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Company; Annual association fee of $700

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16x12); Bedroom on first floor (15x13); Bedroom on first floor (14x10); Bedroom on first floor (12x10)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Seller provided disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Lease considered

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savannah Lakes El (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 809 students, 54% FRL); Manvel H S (math 48% / reading 48%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,607 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $267,835 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14116 Spring Knoll Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (+2%)	2mo	$278,000	$121	86
14206 Windy Ridge Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,465 (+8%)	2mo	$298,000	$121	77
5732 Montclair Hill Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,335 (+3%)	2mo	$264,900	$113	74
14217 Stone Bluff Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (-6%)	1mo	$265,000	$125	71
5707 Meadow Breeze Ln	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,119 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$111	65
5142 Dunstable Manor Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,273 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$154	64
13805 Bright Canyon Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,312 (+2%)	1mo	$334,900	$145	63
5607 Lilywood Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,082 (-8%)	5mo	$299,000	$144	56
5716 Meadow Breeze Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-9%)	4mo	$269,900	$131	55
1619 Dolores St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,048 (-10%)	0mo	$295,000	$144	48
13838 Madera Bend Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+9%)	2mo	$374,990	$151	48
13408 Baron Hill Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,010 (-12%)	1mo	$275,000	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,273
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-89,694
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$648 /mo · $7,782/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,965

Max offer price $267,835

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	43d	1	0.98mi
13104 Spear Trail Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	3050	$2,900	$0.95	43d	1	0.98mi
5507 Rio Ramos St Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical
3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-09
   listed $289,000 Active
6. 2026-04-06
   soldstatus
7. 2008-01-31
   historical
8. 2007-06-09
   listed $178,990
9. 2007-05-31
   historical
10. 2007-01-13
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,782 · $648/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,782 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$7,782
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,701
• − Management: −$2,701
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$6,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-09 Listed $178,990 HARMLS
• 2007-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-01-13 Listed $179,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,782 · -8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.