46 Cristobal Ct · Odessa, TX 79765

$308,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1985 5,009 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

They are yelling FORE on this one! An amazing very well taken care of home in Mission Estates, right next to the Odessa Country Club Golf course. Safe neighborhood and close to so many great restaurants and attractions. Home is 3 bedrooms with beautiful built ins, 2 bathrooms and built in 1985. There is a brick gas fireplace in the living room. Fence is all brick to hold up to the West Texas winds. 2 Car garage with alley access. Patio with greenery for morning coffee or evening grilling. They do not come across often like this!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Brick fence
• Brick gas fireplace

Tags

• BRICK GAS FIREPLACE
• BRICK FENCE
• ALLEY ACCESS
• PATIO WITH GREENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($480)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Skylight(s); Gas log fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($8/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Fasken El (math 45% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 886 students, 46% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,001 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-56,290
• Equity at exit: $45,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-74,044
• Equity at exit: $26,630

Cash invested: $86,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,902/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $308,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,000
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Cibola Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$3,500	$2.33	43d	1	0.07mi
3601 N Faudree Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,982	$2.22	13d	20	0.30mi
4001 N Faudree Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,850	$1.97	13d	12	0.72mi
7309 Raphael St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$3,500	$1.92	21d	1	0.74mi
4001 De Morada Dr Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,969	$2.20	13d	10	0.77mi
7230 Barksdale Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,100	$1.64	21d	1	0.82mi
7214 Barksdale Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$2,000	$1.54	43d	1	0.87mi
7650 Tres Hermanas Blvd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$1,940	$1.84	43d	3	0.88mi
7206 Raphael St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,800	$1.61	43d	1	0.91mi
7204 Donatello St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,400	$1.37	43d	1	0.92mi
8001 Brownstone Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,058	$2.15	13d	16	1.00mi
1205 Old Course Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,100	$1.21	43d	1	1.09mi
8225 Dorado Dr Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,090	$2.36	13d	20	1.12mi
7701 E Highway 191 Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,768	$1.77	13d	6	1.19mi
4121 San Antonio St Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,175	$2.31	13d	10	1.20mi
3001 Pointer Ln Unit 5B Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,450	$1.35	43d	1	1.26mi
503 Old Course Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	13d	1	1.27mi
3001 Pointer Ln Unit 12D Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,800	$1.64	21d	1	1.27mi
14 Devon Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,350	$1.52	13d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-08
   price $308,000
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $330,000 Active
5. 2020-07-22
   soldstatus
6. 2001-07-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,902 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,636 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,735/yr (+$145/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,253
• − Property taxes: −$3,902
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$5,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $308,000 PBBOR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $330,000 PBBOR
• 2020-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,902 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.