51 Laurel Trl · Wurtsboro Hills, NY 12790

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1969 0.72 ac lot Est $206k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 129 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Propane connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Year built: not provided
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Construction materials: unknown

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; No basement; No attic; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Propane available

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $150,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$206,064) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 4.1% in Wurtsboro Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $150k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.04%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,064
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Elm Rd N	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,161 (-10%)	3mo	$205,000	$177	68
15 Brook W	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-11%)	17mo	$275,000	$239	62
384 Wilsey Valley Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,258 (-3%)	12mo	$200,000	$159	55
8 Locust Trl	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,139 (-12%)	8mo	$180,000	$158	51
55 Maple Trl	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	21mo	$150,000	$132	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $148,648
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.17×
• Total profit: $385,038
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,129/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,136	-5% $1,094	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,009	+10% $967
Rent	-10% $852	-5% $952	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,151	+10% $1,251
Rate	-1.0pp $1,127	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,013	+1.0pp $973

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Pine St Unit 4 Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,525	$2.10	15d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

3. 2026-03-25
   historical Active Under Contract 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

4. 2026-03-10
   status Active 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

5. 2026-01-09
   historical Active Under Contract 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

6. 2025-12-19
   listed $150,000 Active 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

7. 2025-12-19
   listed $150,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Four properties being sold together for the listed price. Sale includes 51 Laurel Trail, a parcel on Greenwood Road South, and two parcels on Arbutus Trail in Wurtsboro, NY. All tax information, square footage, acreage, location, and legal details are based on the four parcels combined. 51 Laurel Trail (SBL 42.-9-6) features a cottage with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, offering approximately 1,296 sq ft on 0.25 acres. Property is currently occupied with a month-to-month tenant. The parcel on Greenwood Road South (42.-9-7) consists of approximately 0.18 acres. The two parcels on Arbutus Trail (SBL 42.-9-8.3 and 42.-9-8.2) consist of approximately 0.18 acres and 0.11 acres, respectively. All parcels can be located via the Sullivan County Parcel Viewer using the provided SBL numbers. Properties are not available for individual sale.

8. 1987-11-25
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,129
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $10,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,594
• After-tax cash flow: $10,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wurtsboro Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wurtsboro Hills, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $150,000 HVCRMLS
• 1987-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,129 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.