136 Pheasant Dr · Pine Beach, NJ 08721

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot Est $425k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS!!! INCREDIBLE POTENTIAL! Prime location, situated in a highly desireable area close to shopping, commuting routes and just minutes to the beach. The property backs up to woods and the exterior is in great condition, inside needs complete rehab. Home features beautiful custom woodburning stone fireplace and other features that position this home for profitable resale or a rewarding rehab project. Don't miss this opportunity to transform a property with great bones.

Key facts

• Great condition
• Backs up to woods
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• BACKS UP TO WOODS
• GREAT CONDITION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Pine Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#151 in NJ, #3,964 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayville Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #951 of 1,303 statewide, top 75%, 506 students, 29% FRL); Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,967 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,448
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Bittern Ln	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,256 (+1%)	20mo	$340,000	$271	65
23 Mallard Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-7%)	14mo	$360,000	$313	57
22 Woodland Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	12mo	$465,000	$377	56
32 Park Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+0%)	23mo	$365,000	$292	49
50 Park Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-4%)	8mo	$427,000	$356	49
97 Sandpiper Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,398 (+12%)	15mo	$365,000	$261	34
9 Pelican Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+13%)	20mo	$480,000	$342	33
21 Park Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-15%)	9mo	$375,000	$354	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-40,270
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,314
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,177/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $212	+0% $127	+5% $43	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $15	+0% $127	+5% $240	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $203	base $127	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Woodland Rd Bayville, NJ	4.0	1.5	1500	$2,895	$1.93	0d	1	0.23mi
944 Longboat Ave Beachwood, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,695	$2.16	13d	1	1.24mi
744 Cable Ave Beachwood, NJ	3.0	2.0	1178	$3,000	$2.55	45d	1	1.41mi
60 Birch St Beachwood, NJ	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $299,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 488-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $299,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,177 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,311 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$94/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,177
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$815
• After-tax cash flow: $2,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Beach

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,769
• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $299,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,177 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.