430 Line Of Fire Way · Jarrell, TX 76537

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 290 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,904 sqft lot $161/sqft · 28% below area Est $269k · 28% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private backyard
• Splash pad

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,590 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,985
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -27.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Rowdy Yates Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+2%)	0mo	$195,000	$158	91
312 The Bad Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+5%)	4mo	$199,999	$157	77
672 The Ugly Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+5%)	12mo	$240,000	$189	62
240 Line Of Fire Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+13%)	7mo	$234,900	$172	61
317 Perfect World Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+13%)	9mo	$239,000	$175	59
209 Alcatraz Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	12mo	$267,490	$208	56
280 Alcatraz Loop	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+11%)	10mo	$220,000	$164	53
217 Escape Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	9mo	$259,990	$187	46
237 Alcatraz Loop	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	12mo	$259,990	$187	46
205 Escape Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	9mo	$264,990	$191	45
205 Alcatraz Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	10mo	$269,990	$195	44
217 Alcatraz Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	11mo	$269,490	$194	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-49,775
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-79,720
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $232,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 247 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +25.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,887/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $158,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-151	+0% $-206	+5% $-261	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-277	+0% $-206	+5% $-135	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-157	base $-206	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	53d	1	0.18mi
608 Magnum Force Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	22d	1	0.23mi
128 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	31d	1	0.25mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	93d	1	0.31mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	9d	1	0.42mi
376 Rae Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	17d	1	0.48mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	71d	1	0.48mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	73d	1	0.53mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	64d	1	0.55mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	41d	1	0.59mi
137 Hematite Ln Unit 1 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	27d	1	0.70mi
344 Circle Way Unit 35E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,575	$1.13	21d	1	0.82mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	67d	1	0.82mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	69d	1	0.88mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	69d	1	0.97mi
236 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,450	$1.31	18d	1	1.08mi
317 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,650	$1.49	31d	1	1.08mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	73d	1	1.09mi
829 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	41d	1	1.10mi
400 Major Lee Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,600	$1.28	38d	1	1.20mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	73d	1	1.22mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,575	$1.18	24d	1	1.26mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	30d	1	1.35mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,595	$1.09	67d	1	1.36mi
213 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	53d	1	1.42mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	67d	1	1.44mi
676 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,539	$1.15	93d	1	1.44mi
337 Wonderful Life Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,675	$1.19	16d	1	1.45mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	41d	1	1.45mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	9d	1	1.46mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	51d	1	1.48mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	93d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $25/mo · $300/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $195,000 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $195,000 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $195,000 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $195,000 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $195,000 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $195,000 Active 273 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $195,000 Active 272 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $195,000 Active 271 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 269 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 268 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $195,000 Active 267 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $195,000 Active 266 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $195,000 Active 265 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 264 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 263 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $195,000 Active 262 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 261 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 260 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 258 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $195,000 Active 257 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 256 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 254 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 253 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 252 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 251 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $195,000 Active 250 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 249 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $195,000 Active 248 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $195,000 Active 247 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $195,000 Active 245 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $195,000 Active 242 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $195,000 Active 238 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $195,000 Active 237 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 225 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 224 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 223 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,887 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,887 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,887
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,374
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,055–$18,165 screening

This charming 3-bedroom home in Sonterra, Texas, is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready with a good ROI potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9650.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $195,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $199,990 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $209,999 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-19 Rental Removed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $220,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $255,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $1,795 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-27 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,887 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.