430 Line Of Fire Way · Sonterra, TX 76537

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,904 sqft lot $161/sqft · 27% below area Est $269k · 27% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private backyard
• Splash pad

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,237 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,890
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -27.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 The Bad Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+5%)	2mo	$199,999	$157	78
672 The Ugly Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+5%)	11mo	$240,000	$189	63
240 Line Of Fire Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+13%)	5mo	$234,900	$172	63
317 Perfect World Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+13%)	8mo	$239,000	$175	60
209 Alcatraz Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	11mo	$267,490	$208	58
213 Escape Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	12mo	$253,490	$197	57
280 Alcatraz Loop	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+11%)	8mo	$220,000	$164	55
217 Escape Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	8mo	$259,990	$187	47
237 Alcatraz Loop	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	10mo	$259,990	$187	47
205 Escape Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	8mo	$264,990	$191	47
205 Alcatraz Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	8mo	$269,990	$195	46
217 Alcatraz Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+15%)	10mo	$269,490	$194	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-50,234
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-80,638
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,887/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $157,237

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	4d	1	0.18mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	43d	1	0.31mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	17d	1	0.42mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	21d	1	0.48mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	23d	1	0.53mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	14d	1	0.55mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	20d	1	0.59mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	17d	1	0.82mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	19d	1	0.88mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	20d	1	0.97mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	23d	1	1.09mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	1.22mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,595	$1.19	4d	1	1.26mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,595	$1.09	17d	1	1.36mi
213 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	4d	1	1.42mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	17d	1	1.44mi
676 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,539	$1.15	43d	1	1.44mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	2d	1	1.45mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	1d	1	1.46mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	1.48mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    price $195,000 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

15. 2026-03-16
    price $199,990 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

16. 2026-02-26
    price $209,999 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

17. 2026-01-19
    historical $1,550
18. 2025-12-26
    price $220,000 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

19. 2025-10-22
    listed $255,000 Active 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of the highly desirable Sonterra subdivision in Jarrell, Texas! Built for comfort and convenience, this well-maintained home offers a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light. The living area flows effortlessly into a functional kitchen with plenty of counter space and a breakfast bar — perfect for family dinners or casual entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard, ideal for BBQs, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. Located just minutes from I-35, this home offers easy access to Georgetown, Austin, and Temple — all while enjoying the peace of a growing small-town community. Residents of Sonterra enjoy fantastic amenities including a community pool, splash pad, parks, and walking trails.

20. 2025-08-06
    price $1,550
21. 2025-07-10
    price $1,795
22. 2025-06-27
    listed $2,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,887 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,887 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,887
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom home in Sonterra, Texas, is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready with a good ROI potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim bushes — improves landscaping ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9650.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $195,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $199,990 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $209,999 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-19 Rental Removed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $220,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $255,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $1,795 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-27 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,887 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.