19530 Dunbar Ave · Houston, TX 77338

$115,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 1940 8,498 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property needs a lot of work and could be a tear down. Located between Business 1960 and Fm 1960 in Bordersville just outside of the city limits of Humble. Near IAH. There is still a lot of personal items inside this home. Great area to rebuild.

Key facts

• 8,498 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 341 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.74%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,757
• Equity at exit: $29,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $27,828
• Equity at exit: $31,783

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $242	+0% $209	+5% $176	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $160	+0% $209	+5% $258	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $239	base $209	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 325 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,210	$1.94	0d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19842 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	525	$955	$1.82	11d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19821 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,090	$1.74	45d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19851 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,095	$1.75	14d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Apt 321 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,221	$1.95	8d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 112 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	525	$925	$1.76	0d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 1162 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,221	$1.95	6d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19874 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,100	$1.76	14d	1	0.29mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,065	$1.70	16d	1	0.30mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 147 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	525	$956	$1.82	0d	1	0.33mi
19815 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,756	$1.88	0d	62	0.35mi
19815 Kenswick Dr Unit 19815 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,260	$2.02	11d	1	0.35mi
9393 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,530	$1.48	0d	28	0.52mi
19700 Whitaker Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	751	$1,629	$2.17	6d	1	1.13mi
9814 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	607	$960	$1.58	14d	1	1.22mi
9814 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$899	$1.63	0d	1	1.22mi
9814 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	607	$955	$1.57	45d	1	1.22mi
9814 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	607	$922	$1.52	18d	1	1.22mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,575	$1.81	0d	2	1.26mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE14302 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,000	$1.36	45d	1	1.31mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE18305 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,050	$1.43	45d	1	1.31mi
7150 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,625	$1.86	45d	4	1.33mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 1162 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$875	$1.61	6d	1	1.35mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 19971 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$934	$1.71	45d	1	1.35mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 19941 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$939	$1.72	14d	1	1.35mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 324 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$875	$1.61	8d	1	1.35mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 19941 Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$864	$1.59	0d	1	1.35mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$864	$1.59	14d	1	1.40mi
19926 Foxwood Forest Blvd Humble, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$955	$1.75	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,900 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 339 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 338 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 337 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,900 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,900 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,900 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,900 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,900 Active 322 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 321 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $115,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This property needs a lot of work and could be a tear down. Located between Business 1960 and Fm 1960 in Bordersville just outside of the city limits of Humble. Near IAH. There is still a lot of personal items inside this home. Great area to rebuild.

17. 2026-04-15
    price $124,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This property needs a lot of work and could be a tear down. Located between Business 1960 and Fm 1960 in Bordersville just outside of the city limits of Humble. Near IAH. There is still a lot of personal items inside this home. Great area to rebuild.

18. 2025-07-11
    listed $125,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This property needs a lot of work and could be a tear down. Located between Business 1960 and Fm 1960 in Bordersville just outside of the city limits of Humble. Near IAH. There is still a lot of personal items inside this home. Great area to rebuild.

19. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $115,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.