23610 Goodwill Way · California, MD 20619

$438,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,672 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2024 1,980 sqft lot Est $478k · 8% under $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 23610 Goodwill Way in the heart of California, MD. This interior townhouse is a well-located property offering comfort, convenience, and everyday functionality. Situated in the desirable neighborhood of The Woods at Myrtle Point, this home provides easy access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, making it an excellent choice for both work and leisure. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed layout with inviting living spaces that are perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home features ample natural light, a practical flow between rooms, and comfortable living areas that can easily adapt to your lifestyle needs. The kitchen offers plenty of workspace and

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade area includes finished and unfinished space; Finished above-grade and below-grade area reported (source: Assessor)
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $100 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned off-street parking spaces (space #610)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane hot water; Electric available; Propane available; Municipal trash service; Broadband internet available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Built by Lennar; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Year built (source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Community pool; Shed; Other above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One full bathroom on the lower level; One half bathroom on the main level; Three full bathrooms total, one half bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Electric heating fuel; Electric cooling fuel (other cooling type listed)
• Interior features: Fully finished daylight basement with interior access, rear entrance, walkout level and windows; Excellent condition; Built-in microwave, disposal, exhaust fan, water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit on the upper floor; Dryer is electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $438k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in California — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollywood Elementary (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #251 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 474 students, 30% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Leonardtown High (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,039 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $326,460 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $478,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23610 Goodwill Way	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,672 (0%)	0mo	$438,000	$164	100
45401 Concord Way	0.08mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,742 (+3%)	1mo	$473,000	$173	84
45301 Foghorn Way	0.10mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,772 (+4%)	3mo	$435,000	$157	81
45419 Concord Way	0.07mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,412 (-10%)	1mo	$464,000	$192	74
45375 Concord Way	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,436 (-9%)	9mo	$479,000	$197	73
23600 Crosswinds Way	0.10mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,412 (-10%)	2mo	$449,900	$187	72
45429 Englewood Way	0.31mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (-5%)	2mo	$430,000	$169	72
45324 Foghorn Way	0.08mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,412 (-10%)	8mo	$450,000	$187	66
23772 Myrtle Glen Way	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,492 (-7%)	7mo	$420,000	$169	64
23756 Myrtle Glen Way	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,432 (-9%)	6mo	$435,000	$179	62
45484 Woodslea Way	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,452 (-8%)	2mo	$437,500	$178	60
23776 Myrtle Glen Way	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,432 (-9%)	7mo	$434,500	$179	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.3% appreciation · 6.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $26,134
• Equity at exit: $180,028

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $168,450
• Equity at exit: $264,948

Cash invested: $122,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20619

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,412/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,730

Max offer price $372,986

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-244	+0% $-368	+5% $-492	+10% $-616
Rent	-10% $-626	-5% $-497	+0% $-368	+5% $-239	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-257	base $-368	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,500
• Closing costs: $13,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23810 Myrtle Glen Way California, MD	3.0	2.5	2452	$2,850	$1.16	4d	1	0.49mi
23861 Myrtle Glen Way California, MD	3.0	3.5	2766	$2,950	$1.07	13d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $438,000 Active
4. 2026-03-29
   historical $438,000
5. 2024-03-02
   status Pending
6. 2024-03-02
   historical
7. 2024-02-27
   status Active
8. 2024-02-14
   status Pending
9. 2024-02-13
   price $419,490
10. 2024-02-13
    status Active
11. 2024-02-10
    status Pending
12. 2024-02-07
    listed $399,990 Active
13. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $1,409,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,412 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,593 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,535
• − Property taxes: −$4,412
• − Insurance: −$2,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,134
• − Management: −$3,134
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,742
• Taxable loss: −$12,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,212
• Household income: $119,432
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Current HPI: 239.4326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-68.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $438,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-29 Coming Soon $438,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $419,490 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed $399,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,409,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,412 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.