Avery Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,797 sqft · SingleFamily · 289 Days on market

$100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 well-appointed bathrooms, perfect for family living. The inviting kitchen area flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and functional space ideal for both daily living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering a generous walk-in closet and a private bath complete with double vanity sinks, providing ample space and comfort. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a relaxing lanai, ideal for enjoying the outdoors. Whether hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet moments at home, this property offers a welcoming and versatile layout for all lifestyles. Photos are representative of a Avery Floorpl

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bath
• Dining area

Tags

• INVITING KITCHEN AREA
• DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DOUBLE VANITY SINKS
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $299,990; Address: Jacksonville, FL 32234
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $100

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Avery)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,797 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Avery; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,896.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,269 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5752 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,797 (0%)	5mo	$383,000	$213	93
15361 Bareback Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-0%)	1mo	$295,000	$164	82
15306 Hidden Foal Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,740 (-3%)	1mo	$240,000	$138	80
5728 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-10%)	4mo	$309,990	$191	74
15384 Bareback Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,783 (-1%)	12mo	$295,000	$165	70
5717 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-10%)	2mo	$309,990	$191	70
15373 Hidden Foal Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-5%)	1mo	$287,147	$168	66
6119 Black Filly Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-5%)	1mo	$290,000	$169	66
15543 Bareback Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-5%)	5mo	$285,000	$167	59
15174 Bareback Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-14%)	3mo	$244,500	$158	57
15319 Bareback Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	0mo	$250,000	$162	57
15324 Hidden Foal Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	14mo	$260,000	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,598
• Equity at exit: $94,518

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $21,029
• Equity at exit: $119,243

Cash invested: $84,531 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $276,196

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-73	+0% $-178	+5% $-282	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-378	-5% $-278	+0% $-178	+5% $-77	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-101	base $-178	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,474
• Closing costs: $9,057
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	6d	1	0.08mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	4d	1	0.26mi
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	13d	1	0.26mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	9d	1	1.10mi
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	3d	1	1.11mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$2,222	$1.19	3d	27	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,990 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 268 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,911
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,782
• Taxable loss: −$7,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $-379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B