614 Saint Bernard St · Providence, KY 42450

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1996 7,405 sqft lot Est $74k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 888 square feet. This property offers a functional kitchen and decent sized bedrooms. Perfect for first- time home buyers, downsizers or investors. The backyard offers some privacy, flat and a great area for kids or pets to play. Contact Amber Goff at 270-871-3179 for more information or your own private showing!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Backyard privacy
• Flat backyard

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• BACKYARD PRIVACY
• FLAT BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range and gas range; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($849 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Providence Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 290 students, 76% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $75k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,704
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Saint Bernard St	0.00mi	2/1.0	888 (0%)	1mo	$74,000	$83	100
609 Langley Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	783 (-12%)	14mo	$67,500	$86	61
201 S Willow St	0.54mi	2/2.0	875 (-2%)	10mo	$100,000	$114	60
217 N Green St	0.45mi	2/1.0	884 (-0%)	23mo	$30,000	$34	59
111 Vaughn St	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	979 (+10%)	15mo	$14,800	$15	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $32,982
• Equity at exit: $44,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $86,788
• Equity at exit: $78,051

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $314/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $241	+0% $220	+5% $199	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $186	+0% $220	+5% $254	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $239	base $220	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-12
   listed $75,000 Active
5. 2021-11-19
   soldstatus $21,000
6. 2008-09-12
   soldstatus $35,000
7. 1998-07-01
   soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $314 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$314
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+248.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-13 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $75,000 MHCBOR
• 2021-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.