813 Jefferson Ave · Cleveland, TX 77327

$169,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 7,248 sqft lot $121/sqft · 24% below area Est $224k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 813 Jefferson Avenue in Cleveland! This charming craftsman style 1 story new build by Zion Homes features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Thoughtfully designed with an open concept layout, the home offers a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near schools and restaurants. Don't miss this opportunity to see this home, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Craftsman style
• Open concept layout
• Conveniently located

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN STYLE
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-334/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $149,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,327
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: -24.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Jefferson Ave	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	2mo	$187,000	$133	94
803 Jefferson Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	4mo	$165,000	$120	88
809 Jefferson Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	6mo	$175,000	$127	88
807 Jefferson Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	6mo	$175,000	$127	87
1104 Southline St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	0mo	$114,900	$79	73
1204 Parkhurst Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-2%)	5mo	$196,880	$143	73
1304 Denison Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	2mo	$146,500	$109	66
708 Plum Grove Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$156	57
1105 S Fenner Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	11mo	$172,900	$129	54
624 Truman St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-3%)	13mo	$174,900	$129	53
803 Hays St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	9mo	$125,000	$104	38
605 Arvon St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	4mo	$82,200	$65	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,592
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,079
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $219,000 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,007/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $165,076

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $20	+0% $-28	+5% $-76	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-91	+0% $-28	+5% $36	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $15	base $-28	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	80d	1	0.05mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,185	$1.10	73d	1	0.18mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	94d	1	0.18mi
700 Lyle West Ave Apt D Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,175	$1.09	68d	1	0.18mi
1303 S Fenner Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,600	$1.37	83d	1	0.59mi
701 Rickey St Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	20d	1	0.60mi
201 Pine Bend Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,100	$1.06	7d	1	0.64mi
705 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,400	$1.00	18d	1	0.75mi
511 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	139d	1	0.76mi
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	103d	1	0.85mi
414 N Holly Ave Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,625	$1.83	0d	7	0.89mi
10710 Ellerston Rd Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$1,955	$1.13	7d	1	0.90mi
1301 Nevell St Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,399	$1.69	0d	9	1.22mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	117d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $169,999 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $169,999 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $169,999 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $169,999 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $169,999 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $169,999 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $169,999 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $169,999 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $169,999 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $169,999 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 166 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $169,999 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $169,999 Active 163 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $169,999 Active 162 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $169,999 Active 160 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $169,999 Active 159 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $169,999 Active 158 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $169,999 Active 157 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $169,999 Active 156 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $169,999 Active 155 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $169,999 Active 154 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $169,999 Active 153 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $169,999 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $175,000 Active 150 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $175,000 Active 149 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $175,000 Active 148 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $175,000 Active 147 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $175,000 Active 130 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $175,000 Active 126 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $175,000 Active 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,007 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,007 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,007
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming craftsman-style single-family home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features an open concept layout, modern kitchen, and two bathrooms. The home is located in a desirable neighborhood and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #3,759/4,322 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Cleveland Middle F TX #1,317/1,662 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $179,999 HARMLS
• 2019-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-14 Price Changed $150,260 HARMLS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $150,821 HARMLS
• 2019-07-27 Listed $145,821 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,007 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.