9033 Greiner Rd · Harris Hill, NY 14031

$339,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1975 0.63 ac lot Est $451k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set back from the road on a spacious 0.63-acre lot in Clarence, NY, this exceptionally well-maintained two-story single-family 3 bed 1.5 bath home offers privacy, space, and a bright, open feel throughout. A turnaround driveway and attached two-car garage provide convenience, while the expansive yard creates a peaceful setting with flexibility to add fencing if desired. Inside, you’ll find abundant natural light from an abundance of vinyl & some oversized windows and hardwood floors in immaculate condition. The living room features a large front window, and the open-concept kitchen includes plenty of cabinet space, many with pull out shelves, an eat-in counter bar and flows seam

Key facts

• Turnaround driveway
• Attached garage
• Expansive yard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• TURNAROUND DRIVEWAY
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Two-story house; Resale property; Irregular, rural lot with main thoroughfare frontage
• Construction: Brick, wood siding, and pre-cast concrete construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Pantry; Granite and solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include multiple living spaces (Great Room, Living Room, Sitting Room, Sunroom, Bonus Room, Entry Foyer, Family Room, Florida Room) — bedroom count not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Great room; Pantry; Granite counters; Solid surface counters; Skylights; Natural woodwork; Bath in primary bedroom; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (52.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (49.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (52.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $340k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,003 (52.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.07%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,164
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9033 Greiner Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,779 (+13%)	0mo	$377,000	$212	78
9165 Greiner Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-8%)	1mo	$506,000	$348	70
5125 Brookfield Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+11%)	12mo	$501,000	$287	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-119,540
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-186,994
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,657/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $161,003

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $339,900 Active
3. 2003-07-25
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,657 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,200 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$4,657
• − Insurance: −$2,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$18,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+119.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $339,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,657 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.