5103 S Moccasin Trl · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$549,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2016 6,017 sqft lot Est $585k · 6% under $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home, a must-see opportunity in one of Gilbert's most sought-after neighborhoods, The Bridges! This stunning home is conveniently located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, and directly across the street from Gilbert Regional Park, making it one of the best locations in the entire East Valley! The home is exceptionally well maintained and move-in-ready, featuring brand new exterior paint, freshly cleaned carpets, plantation shutters throughout, EV charger, balcony, and a large grassy backyard with a view fence. The upgraded all white kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinet space, and a clean modern design perfect for ev

Key facts

• New exterior paint
• View fence
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• EXTERIOR ROCK LANDSCAPING
• LARGE GRASSY BACKYARD
• VIEW FENCE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approx. 6,017 (per assessor)
• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $405; HOA includes grounds maintenance; Community playground; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Balcony; Block and wrought-iron fencing; Desert front landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Grass in back yard; Irrigation front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in electric oven; Reverse osmosis water filtration
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Full bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Upstairs
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (46.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (46.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bridges Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #13 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 759 students, 7% FRL); Sossaman Middle School (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #4 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 1,043 students, 13% FRL); Higley High School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #46 of 381 statewide, top 12%, 2,137 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,309 (46.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $585,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5066 S Moccasin Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,004 (0%)	1mo	$585,000	$292	90
4963 S Girard St	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,910 (-5%)	2mo	$558,000	$292	78
4990 S Bridal Vail Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,036 (+2%)	2mo	$548,000	$269	76
5199 S Moccasin Trl	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,177 (+9%)	1mo	$690,000	$317	68
5193 S Moccasin Trl	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,177 (+9%)	2mo	$675,000	$310	67
3420 E Indigo St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,177 (+9%)	2mo	$600,000	$276	67
3667 E Jude Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,202 (+10%)	2mo	$685,000	$311	59
3620 E Baranca Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,008 (+0%)	0mo	$575,000	$286	57
4891 S Arroyo Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,257 (+13%)	0mo	$673,300	$298	53
3596 E Thornton Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-8%)	1mo	$515,000	$280	50
3870 E Ficus Way	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,173 (+8%)	2mo	$633,000	$291	49
3402 E Thornton Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,243 (+12%)	1mo	$632,000	$282	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $173,968
• Equity at exit: $430,718

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $564,785
• Equity at exit: $868,306

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,938/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,309

Max offer price $358,357

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-768	-5% $-924	+0% $-1,079	+5% $-1,235	+10% $-1,390
Rent	-10% $-1,312	-5% $-1,195	+0% $-1,079	+5% $-963	+10% $-847
Rate	-1.0pp $-803	-0.5pp $-940	base $-1,079	+0.5pp $-1,221	+1.0pp $-1,366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5149 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,750	$1.64	15d	1	0.08mi
3432 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,695	$1.78	2d	1	0.27mi
3636 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$3,075	$1.69	17d	1	0.49mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	13d	1	0.53mi
3830 E Thornton Ave Unit 1546326P Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2292	$3,902	$1.70	17d	1	0.59mi
5434 S Forest Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2341	$2,900	$1.24	19d	1	0.61mi
4269 E Cassia Ln Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,495	$1.77	25d	1	0.95mi
5141 S Eucalyptus Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$3,700	$2.31	2d	1	0.97mi
2983 E Ironside Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2450	$2,450	$1.00	44d	1	1.12mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	20d	1	1.14mi
3652 E Temecula Way Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,295	$1.14	25d	1	1.14mi
4231 E Marshall Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,700	$1.22	3d	1	1.15mi
2954 E Coconino Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,590	$1.19	3d	1	1.15mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	44d	1	1.22mi
3668 E Moreno St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,480	$1.36	5d	1	1.22mi
3297 E Warbler Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,495	$1.36	19d	1	1.23mi
3297 E Warbler Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,550	$1.39	25d	1	1.23mi
3296 E Warbler Rd Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,500	$1.46	5d	1	1.27mi
5475 S Cardinal St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2708	$4,000	$1.48	2d	1	1.27mi
4502 E Narrowleaf Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	25d	1	1.33mi
4554 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,500	$1.78	25d	1	1.35mi
2543 E Penedes Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,695	$1.08	44d	1	1.40mi
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	19d	1	1.42mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	25d	1	1.42mi
4055 S Ranch House Pkwy Gilbert, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,689	$2.44	3d	7	1.45mi
3855 E Santa Fe Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1573	$1,795	$1.14	20d	1	1.47mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	15d	1	1.47mi
3553 E Trigger Way Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,249	$1.13	11d	1	1.47mi
3892 S Moccasin Trl Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2164	$2,350	$1.09	3d	1	1.49mi
3938 S Napa Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1564	$2,188	$1.40	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $549,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $559,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $564,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $564,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $564,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $564,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $564,000
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $569,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,938 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,623 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,686/yr (+$140/mo · 87.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,938
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,825
• − Management: −$2,825
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$23,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $564,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $569,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,938 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.