2205 Whitney Rd · Celina, TX 75009

$352,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 5,489 sqft lot Est $362k · at est. $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Legacy Hills - Springsteen Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2896 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,133 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,442
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1413 Buchanan Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-8%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	85
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	82
1501 Buchanan Way	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+7%)	2mo	$365,999	$164	82
2417 Lost Creek Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	2mo	$329,399	$158	78
1425 Marcella Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,144 (+3%)	1mo	$350,000	$163	77
1409 Bramante St	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,144 (+3%)	1mo	$349,990	$163	75
1436 Bramante	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,193 (+5%)	1mo	$399,950	$182	70
1428 Florence Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+5%)	1mo	$404,950	$184	68
2409 Greenbelt Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-8%)	2mo	$324,999	$169	68
1424 Florence Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+12%)	1mo	$414,970	$178	57
2405 Greenbelt Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (-12%)	0mo	$316,999	$174	56
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+7%)	1mo	$417,635	$187	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-74,090
• Equity at exit: $52,633

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-109,075
• Equity at exit: $30,521

Cash invested: $98,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2896
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,851
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,295/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,221

Max offer price $334,760

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $-4	+0% $-126	+5% $-248	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-247	+0% $-126	+5% $-5	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-36	base $-126	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,250
• Closing costs: $10,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	2d	1	0.11mi
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,450	$1.27	8d	1	0.49mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,800	$1.26	21d	1	0.75mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	44d	1	0.93mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	44d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $352,999
3. 2026-03-04
   price $353,999
4. 2026-02-25
   price $355,999
5. 2026-02-14
   listed $365,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,773
• − Property taxes: −$5,295
• − Insurance: −$1,765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,939
• − Management: −$2,939
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$10,269
• Taxable loss: −$7,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $352,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $353,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $355,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $365,999 NTREIS