5239 Sugar Bush Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$246,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2003 5,279 sqft lot Est $237k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful 1-story home 4 beds 2 baths. New interior paint. Beautiful wood-look vinyl plank & tile floor throughout the entire house. Living room is spacious with recess lights and ceiling fan. Kitchen was remodeled with beautiful quartz countertop and modern backsplash, new big sink, new hood vent, recess light fixtures. New chandelier in Dining area. The PRIMARY BEDROOM is spacious. The primary bathroom features updated vanity cabinets & shower tub & stylish tile, walk-in closet, new light fixtures and plumbing fixtures! So does the hallway bathroom. All bedrooms with new light fixtures. Large windows fill the home with natural light, enhancing the bright

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• Remodeled kitchen
• Modern backsplash

Tags

• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL PLANK
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• MODERN BACKSPLASH
• UPDATED VANITY CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2003; Single-story entry (first level primary rooms)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level (approx. 13 x 12); Bedroom on first level (approx. 10 x 9); Bedroom on first level (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on first level (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,960 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,684
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5227 Honeyvine Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-6%)	2mo	$199,000	$141	80
12935 Rockford Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (-4%)	4mo	$220,000	$152	78
12106 Panay Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+2%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	73
5313 Basquiat Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,427 (-5%)	4mo	$279,538	$196	70
4807 Tili And Gili St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-5%)	2mo	$249,990	$176	69
11926 Panay Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (-0%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	68
4821 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-5%)	4mo	$269,990	$190	67
12702 Fawnway Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,698 (+13%)	2mo	$215,000	$127	66
4218 Richmeadow Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-7%)	0mo	$238,500	$172	63
12302 Swae Lee	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,540 (+3%)	1mo	$243,800	$158	62
5315 Fairgreen Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,576 (+5%)	2mo	$199,990	$127	60
5108 Frisch St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,362 (-9%)	2mo	$256,000	$188	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,480
• Equity at exit: $105,488

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $45,876
• Equity at exit: $158,528

Cash invested: $69,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,144/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $205,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-162	+0% $-232	+5% $-302	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-308	+0% $-232	+5% $-157	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-169	base $-232	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,625
• Closing costs: $7,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	0.48mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	44d	1	0.49mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.56mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.57mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	0.77mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	0d	1	0.82mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	0.84mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	8d	1	0.87mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	23d	1	0.90mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	27	0.92mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	1.03mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,273	$1.09	0d	1	1.03mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	1.03mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	1.06mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.12mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	1.26mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	1.29mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,455	$1.11	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $246,500 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,500 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 675-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $246,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,144 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,511 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,808
• − Property taxes: −$4,144
• − Insurance: −$1,232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$7,171
• Taxable loss: −$7,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $246,500 HARMLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,144 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.