1633 W Lacewood Pl · Phoenix, AZ 85045

$417,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2009 2,635 sqft lot Est $574k · 27% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

Key facts

• Oak cabinets
• Built-in appliances
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• MANICURED LANDSCAPE
• OAK CABINETS
• CROWN MOLDING
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association present; Association fees collected semi-annually; Association fee examples: $176 (semi-annually) and $306.13 (semi-annually); Association maintains grounds; Association rule: no visible truck/trailer/RV/boat; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Block fencing; Desert front landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Grass in back yard; City-maintained road access; City view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in gas oven; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Upstairs living area; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Master bath with separate shower and tub; Dual-pane windows; Bath lever faucets (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $418k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Kyrene Elementary District (4267) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 249 in AZ (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kyrene De La Sierra School (math 69% / reading 81%, grade A, #32 of 1,109 statewide, top 3%, 514 students, 12% FRL); Kyrene Altadena Middle School (math 49% / reading 61%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 962 students, 10% FRL); Desert Vista High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #31 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,964 students, 10% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kyrene Elementary District (4267) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,411 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $573,804
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1633 W Lacewood Pl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,782 (0%)	0mo	$417,900	$235	98
1547 W Lacewood Pl W	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,782 (0%)	11mo	$469,700	$264	86
1816 W Lacewood Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,869 (+5%)	2mo	$530,000	$284	77
1551 W Lacewood Pl	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,930 (+8%)	3mo	$459,850	$238	76
1711 W Satinwood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-8%)	3mo	$538,900	$329	74
1646 W Windsong Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	3mo	$585,000	$352	74
1641 W Windsong Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	8mo	$510,000	$307	71
1721 W Nighthawk Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-2%)	10mo	$575,000	$330	69
16404 S 18th Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-2%)	8mo	$560,000	$322	63
1739 W Nighthawk Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	9mo	$589,000	$355	61
1356 W Deer Creek Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+12%)	8mo	$670,000	$336	52
104 W Windsong Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+12%)	10mo	$567,500	$284	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $11,264
• Equity at exit: $164,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $92,269
• Equity at exit: $236,557

Cash invested: $117,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85045

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,192
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,290

Max offer price $370,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-147	+0% $-266	+5% $-384	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-499	-5% $-382	+0% $-266	+5% $-149	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-159	base $-266	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,475
• Closing costs: $12,537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1517 W Windsong Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2280	$2,595	$1.14	0d	1	0.19mi
16609 S 16th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,899	$1.62	0d	1	0.23mi
16609 S 16th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,899	$1.62	3d	1	0.23mi
1724 W Deer Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$3,150	$1.81	0d	1	0.25mi
1821 W Glenhaven Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,800	$1.69	3d	1	0.33mi
1722 W Amberwood Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,295	$1.68	0d	1	0.49mi
15550 S 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1591	$2,675	$1.68	4d	2	1.16mi
15550 S 5th Ave #108 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1633	$3,000	$1.84	0d	1	1.17mi
16417 S 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1827	$3,975	$2.18	0d	1	1.38mi
528 W Mountain Sage Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2282	$2,700	$1.18	0d	1	1.45mi
528 W Mountain Sage Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2283	$2,895	$1.27	23d	1	1.45mi
263 E Ashurst Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,195	$1.45	4d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $417,900 Active
3. 2025-10-01
   historical
4. 2025-06-12
   price $475,000
5. 2025-04-24
   price $490,000
6. 2025-04-10
   listed $499,900 Active
7. 2024-07-30
   soldstatus $474,500 Closed 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

8. 2024-07-30
   soldstatus $474,500

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

9. 2024-07-26
   status Pending 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

10. 2024-07-03
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

11. 2024-06-13
    listed $485,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled in the picturesque Ahwatukee Foothills, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an inviting blend of comfort and convenience. The layout includes a warm and welcoming living area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Once in the kitchen, you'll notice sleek countertops, ample cabinet space and a gas range, making it a chef's delight. Adjacent to the kitchen is a cozy dining area. Whether you need an office, play area or a library, the upstairs loft is a perfect additional flex space. The primary suite offers en-suite bathroom, a large walk-in closet and a private balcony. Situated close to freeway access, this home ensures effortless commuting while being minutes away from the stunning mountain hiking trails that Ahwatukee Foothills is renowned for.

12. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $480,000 Closed
13. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $480,000
14. 2023-06-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
15. 2023-06-16
    listed $475,000 Active
16. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $435,000 Closed
17. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $435,000
18. 2021-12-04
    status Pending
19. 2021-11-24
    status Active
20. 2021-11-09
    status Pending
21. 2021-10-01
    price $450,000
22. 2021-09-15
    listed $455,000 Active
23. 2021-07-13
    soldstatus $436,700
24. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $264,900 Closed
25. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $264,900
26. 2018-11-05
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2018-10-26
    price $264,900
28. 2018-09-08
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,758 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$914/yr (+$76/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,409
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$2,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$12,157
• Taxable loss: −$10,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kyrene Elementary District (4267)
• NCES district ID: 0404230
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $79,317
• Composite: 42.24/100
• National rank: #3278
• State rank: #43 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,600
• Household income: $153,583
• Rent vs Own: 8.8% rent · 91.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Asian 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Current HPI: 264.7453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+54.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $417,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $475,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $490,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $499,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $474,500 Public Records
• 2024-07-30 Sold (MLS) $474,500 ARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listed $485,000 ARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $480,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $480,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-06-16 Listed $475,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $435,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-11-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-10-01 Price Changed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Listed $455,000 ARMLS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $436,700 Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $264,900 Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (MLS) $264,900 ARMLS
• 2018-11-05 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-10-26 Price Changed $264,900 ARMLS
• 2018-09-08 Listed $269,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,844 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.