29215 Dandelion Sky Dr · Waller, TX 77484

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,745 sqft lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aspen - With 1388 Square feet, the Aspen plan is a 3 bedroom/2 bath and offers ample space. 42" cabinets, stainless steel appliances, Whirlpool 5 burner gas range, microwave oven, and dishwasher are some of the features this home offers. Wait until you see the luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower in the primary bedroom! With ceiling fans in the primary bedroom and great room, you'll stay cool and comfortable all year round. The tankless water heater, garage door opener, blinds, and keyless entry add extra convenience to your daily life.

Key facts

• 5,745 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $224,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,940.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,940
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29127 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	97
29211 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+2%)	1mo	$234,090	$166	93
29226 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+3%)	1mo	$244,940	$172	91
29231 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+3%)	2mo	$256,940	$180	91
29242 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+3%)	0mo	$253,940	$178	91
29138 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+3%)	1mo	$230,590	$161	90
29223 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+4%)	1mo	$227,940	$157	89
29234 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+4%)	1mo	$248,940	$172	88
29102 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+3%)	0mo	$257,590	$181	84
29207 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	0mo	$244,900	$155	70
29238 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+13%)	0mo	$238,040	$152	70
29227 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+13%)	2mo	$250,040	$160	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,194
• Equity at exit: $36,820

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-80,839
• Equity at exit: $21,351

Cash invested: $69,143 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,640 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 176 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +5.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,704/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,223

Max offer price $228,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-43	+0% $-129	+5% $-214	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-210	+0% $-129	+5% $-47	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-66	base $-129	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,735
• Closing costs: $7,408
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.90mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	1.27mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community curbsAssociation exists with annual fee of $600 (association name TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardConcrete road surfaceSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorTwo additional bedrooms on first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $50/mo · $600/yr

• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $224,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $224,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $224,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $224,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $249,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $249,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $249,900 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 63 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 62 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,832
• − Property taxes: −$3,704
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,184
• Taxable loss: −$5,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,940–$20,820 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, hardwood flooring, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and has good potential for value increases with minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community curbsAssociation exists with annual fee of $600 (association name TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardConcrete road surfaceSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorTwo additional bedrooms on first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate showerTub/shower comboCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Listed $253,900 Zillow