812 W Clover Rd #59 · Tracy, CA 95376

$249,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition Est $202k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Orchard Estates Mobile Home Community. This move-in ready residence has been extensively updated throughout and offers the look and feel of a traditional site-built home. Recent improvements include a fully renovated kitchen, updated flooring, fresh interior finishes, modern lighting fixtures, updated walls, and numerous additional upgrades. The spacious floor plan provides comfortable living areas, generously sized bedrooms, and ample storage throughout. The primary suite features a private bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll find a detached stora

Key facts

• Remodeled home
• Parking
• Built 1983

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property shows as not land leased)
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V outlet in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1983; Canterbury model by Golden West Homes
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Breakfast area; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Breakfast nook and dining/living combo; Breakfast area; Stone counters; Living room with additional features
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Dedicated laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.6% in Tracy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#496 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tracy Joint Unified (suburban): math 22% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #305 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Melville S. Jacobson Elementary (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,168 of 1,571 statewide, top 75%, 583 students, 70% FRL); Monte Vista Middle (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #388 of 498 statewide, top 80%, 751 students, 70% FRL); Merrill F. West High (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #558 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 2,108 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,500
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
812 W Clover Rd #74	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-0%)	6mo	$205,000	$153	89
812 W Clover Rd #89	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-0%)	7mo	$202,000	$150	87
812 W Clover Rd #17 #17	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	22mo	$210,000	$150	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,629
• Equity at exit: $37,268

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $50,781
• Equity at exit: $21,611

Cash invested: $69,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95376

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,749/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $249,950

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $771	-5% $685	+0% $598	+5% $512	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $482	+0% $598	+5% $715	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $662	base $598	+0.5pp $534	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,488
• Closing costs: $7,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
498 Hintz Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,420	$2.23	4d	1	0.28mi
2921 Alene Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1084	$2,400	$2.21	25d	1	0.29mi
2680 Bonifacio Dr Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$3,000	$2.25	5d	1	0.32mi
3440 Buthmann Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,550	$2.39	20d	1	0.42mi
950 W Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,685	$3.27	4d	15	0.43mi
1603 Swarthout Ct Unit 1603 Tracy, CA	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,495	$1.92	4d	1	0.59mi
1720 Bessie Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,475	$2.29	4d	1	0.86mi
115 E Emerson Ave Tracy, CA	3.0	2.0	1112	$2,475	$2.23	23d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,950 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,950 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,950 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,950 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,950 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,950 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $249,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,001
• − Property taxes: −$3,749
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,826
• − Management: −$2,826
• − Depreciation: −$7,271
• Taxable income: $3,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $6,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Orchard Estates Mobile Home Community has been extensively updated with a fresh exterior, updated kitchen and bathrooms, and fresh interior finishes. It offers a spacious floor plan with comfortable living areas and ample storage.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale update landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal
• Both install smart home features — enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale update landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal ↑
• Both install smart home features — enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tracy Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600047
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $73,095
• Composite: 27.94/100
• National rank: #6862
• State rank: #305 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tracy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #16717

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracy, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 133,642
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,488
• Household income: $102,555
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.54%
• Current HPI: 255.8813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B