14507 Sweet Water Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,274 sqft lot $177/sqft · 7% below area Est $310k · 7% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love the moment you walk through the door! This stunning 2021-built 3BR/2BA home in the quiet, family-friendly Rain Tree community of Baytown is the one you've been waiting for. The dreamy open-concept kitchen features gray shaker cabinets, gold hardware, quartz counters, subway tile backsplash, a large island perfect for family gatherings, and stainless steel appliances incl. gas range. Rich LVP flooring flows through the main living areas filled with natural light. The primary suite is your personal retreat with a spa-like walk-in shower, dual vanity & walk-in closet. Entertain effortlessly on the covered patio with ceiling fan & string lights overlooking a lush fenced

Key facts

• Gray shaker cabinets
• Quartz counters
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRAY SHAKER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D R Horton
• HOA & community: RAINTREE COVE HOMEOWNERS ASSOC with an annual fee of $700

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Built in 2021
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; 10 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,669 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,085
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -6.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 San Marcos Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+6%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	78
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,821 (+11%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	72
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-3%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	68
6830 Bens Lndg	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-3%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	64
6818 Bens Lndg	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+0%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	63
6922 Bens Lndg	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+0%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	59
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-7%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	56
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+9%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	56
6743 Camila St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+3%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	55
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+12%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	48
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-14%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	46
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+9%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-60,269
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,756
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,327 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $248,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-146	+0% $-228	+5% $-310	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-320	+0% $-228	+5% $-136	+10% $-44
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-154	base $-228	+0.5pp $-303	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.34mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	0.53mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.57mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	0.72mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	26d	1	1.09mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	24d	1	1.26mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	17d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	4d	1	1.30mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	45d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $295,000 Active 756-char remark
16. 2025-11-01
    historical $2,250
17. 2025-09-27
    price $2,250
18. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,289 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
• − Management: −$2,234
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$7,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $-874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021-built single-family home in the Rain Tree community of Baytown is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's modern aesthetic and improves curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's modern aesthetic and improves curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12197.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Rental Removed $2,250 HARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $2,250 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,350 HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,462 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.