306 Robinson St · Bethany, IL 61914

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1993 7,500 sqft lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $94k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming home located at 306 Robinson in Bethany, offering a comfortable layout and a welcoming feel. This property features spacious living areas, functional design, and a great opportunity to make it your own. Conveniently located with small-town charm while still being within reach of nearby amenities. A solid option for buyers looking for value and potential.

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RES

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Road surface: Other; Subdivision: Nobles Add

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Okaw Valley CUSD 302 (rural): math 11% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #424 of 620 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Moultrie County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Moultrie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,080
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: 21.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Elm Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	6mo	$139,000	$132	78
704 S Saint John St	0.20mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	4mo	$111,500	$116	68
716 W Robinson St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,154 (+9%)	3mo	$100,000	$87	67
1 Elm Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+15%)	5mo	$82,000	$68	66
407 S Saint John St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+9%)	18mo	$28,000	$24	62
601 S Saint John St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+14%)	18mo	$120,000	$100	54
505 W Main St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	11mo	$63,000	$68	52
44 Meadow Lark Ct	0.47mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	12mo	$124,000	$129	49
11 Iola Ct	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (+10%)	5mo	$163,900	$141	47
16 Iola Ct	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (+7%)	11mo	$105,000	$93	46
601 N Worth St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+4%)	19mo	$109,000	$99	46
7 Lane Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	12mo	$115,000	$120	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $47,974
• Equity at exit: $73,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $133,276
• Equity at exit: $146,401

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61914

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,729/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   price $98,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 365-char remark
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $114,000 Active 365-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,729 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,977 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,729
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable loss: −$36
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaw Valley CUSD 302
• NCES district ID: 1700223
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,236
• Composite: 17.67/100
• National rank: #9028
• State rank: #424 of 620 in IL

Livability — Bethany

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #14904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethany, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,855

Population outlook (Moultrie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,766 people
• By 2030: 14,490 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 13,848 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 13,063 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 10,862 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 7,963 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Moultrie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.0 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.93%
• Current HPI: 197.4905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $98,000 CIBR
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — CIBR
• 2026-05-11 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $114,000 CIBR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,729 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.