2916 Blackjack Ln · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$179,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 265 Days on market

Built 2023 5,184 sqft lot $148/sqft · 23% above area Est $147k · 23% over $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS HOME MEETS A MULTITUDE OF FINANCING POSSIBILITIES: FHA, VA, USDA, CONVENTIONAL, AND CASH. And Owner says IT'S GOTTA GO. He's throwing in a double-door stainless steel refrigerator with ice maker, along with washer and dryer. All you have to do is sign and close. Compare to new built, low mileage, 2023 high-end home. Easy to maintain and mow lot; nicely painted decks with vented steel skirting, with easy under carriage access doors. Low HOA dues; community center, 3 boat ramps 2 play grounds, and community pool located a street away. Home features wood looking linoleum throughout, no carpet to deal with, decorative beams and trim in living room along with shelf for flat TV, decorative can lights, and as an added treat, a must have in Texas, new ceiling fans in every bedroom. Don't forget about the new decorative blinds sure to help on the electric bill, in addition to the freebies. Home comes equipped with stainless steel stove and dishwasher, as well. Wonderful open flow throughout. Don't let this one get away: come take her for a test drive TODAY, you won't be disappointed.

Key facts

• Community center
• Community pool
• Washer and dryer

Tags

• WASHER AND DRYER
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• BOAT RAMPS
• PLAY GROUNDS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WOOD LOOKING LINOLEUM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.03%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,739
• List price: $179,999
• Delta: 22.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3011 Mistletoe St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$139,400	$115	89
3001 Elmwood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	4mo	$157,500	$132	86
3210 Robinhood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$144,900	$113	73
4425 W Oak Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-5%)	17mo	$149,900	$129	69
3425 Evergreen Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	2mo	$162,000	$136	61
2654 Edgecliff Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	12mo	$150,000	$112	54
2548 Rockcliff Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	13mo	$130,000	$116	52
2703 Rockcliff Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	14mo	$120,000	$88	48
2657 Edgecliff Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-12%)	8mo	$120,000	$113	48
2614 Sycamore Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	4mo	$175,000	$130	46
4321 Terri Lee Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+14%)	20mo	$189,000	$136	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,831
• Equity at exit: $26,838

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,528
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,578/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $179,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $346	+0% $295	+5% $244	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $223	+0% $295	+5% $368	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $341	base $295	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	0d	1	0.37mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	0.51mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscapingpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,999 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,999 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,999 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,999 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,999 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,999 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,999 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,999 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,999 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,999 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,999 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,999 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,999 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,999 Active 244 DOM
15. 2025-09-28
    listed $179,999 Active 1102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1102 chars)

    THIS HOME MEETS A MULTITUDE OF FINANCING POSSIBILITIES: FHA, VA, USDA, CONVENTIONAL, AND CASH. And Owner says IT'S GOTTA GO. He's throwing in a double-door stainless steel refrigerator with ice maker, along with washer and dryer. All you have to do is sign and close. Compare to new built, low mileage, 2023 high-end home. Easy to maintain and mow lot; nicely painted decks with vented steel skirting, with easy under carriage access doors. Low HOA dues; community center, 3 boat ramps 2 play grounds, and community pool located a street away. Home features wood looking linoleum throughout, no carpet to deal with, decorative beams and trim in living room along with shelf for flat TV, decorative can lights, and as an added treat, a must have in Texas, new ceiling fans in every bedroom. Don't forget about the new decorative blinds sure to help on the electric bill, in addition to the freebies. Home comes equipped with stainless steel stove and dishwasher, as well. Wonderful open flow throughout. Don't let this one get away: come take her for a test drive TODAY, you won't be disappointed.

16. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus Closed 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Check out this great property in the highly sought after Boater Community Oak Trail Shores! Experience modern living in this brand new manufactured home. This great property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and a thoughtfully designed layout that offers comfort and convenience. With energy efficient features throughout, this home offers both sustainability and cost savings. In addition to being close to the lake, it is also a short drive to downtown Granbury Square that includes shopping and dining, parks and much more. Oak Trail Shores is near many great restaurants such as Garcias, Stumpy's and The Local Sports Bar. Bring all offers; as my sellers can be creative to get you in this great home! Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this dream home, in a great location, yours today.

17. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Check out this great property in the highly sought after Boater Community Oak Trail Shores! Experience modern living in this brand new manufactured home. This great property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and a thoughtfully designed layout that offers comfort and convenience. With energy efficient features throughout, this home offers both sustainability and cost savings. In addition to being close to the lake, it is also a short drive to downtown Granbury Square that includes shopping and dining, parks and much more. Oak Trail Shores is near many great restaurants such as Garcias, Stumpy's and The Local Sports Bar. Bring all offers; as my sellers can be creative to get you in this great home! Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this dream home, in a great location, yours today.

18. 2024-02-21
    status Pending 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Check out this great property in the highly sought after Boater Community Oak Trail Shores! Experience modern living in this brand new manufactured home. This great property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and a thoughtfully designed layout that offers comfort and convenience. With energy efficient features throughout, this home offers both sustainability and cost savings. In addition to being close to the lake, it is also a short drive to downtown Granbury Square that includes shopping and dining, parks and much more. Oak Trail Shores is near many great restaurants such as Garcias, Stumpy's and The Local Sports Bar. Bring all offers; as my sellers can be creative to get you in this great home! Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this dream home, in a great location, yours today.

19. 2024-02-15
    historical Active Option Contract 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Check out this great property in the highly sought after Boater Community Oak Trail Shores! Experience modern living in this brand new manufactured home. This great property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and a thoughtfully designed layout that offers comfort and convenience. With energy efficient features throughout, this home offers both sustainability and cost savings. In addition to being close to the lake, it is also a short drive to downtown Granbury Square that includes shopping and dining, parks and much more. Oak Trail Shores is near many great restaurants such as Garcias, Stumpy's and The Local Sports Bar. Bring all offers; as my sellers can be creative to get you in this great home! Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this dream home, in a great location, yours today.

20. 2023-10-20
    listed $174,997 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Check out this great property in the highly sought after Boater Community Oak Trail Shores! Experience modern living in this brand new manufactured home. This great property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and a thoughtfully designed layout that offers comfort and convenience. With energy efficient features throughout, this home offers both sustainability and cost savings. In addition to being close to the lake, it is also a short drive to downtown Granbury Square that includes shopping and dining, parks and much more. Oak Trail Shores is near many great restaurants such as Garcias, Stumpy's and The Local Sports Bar. Bring all offers; as my sellers can be creative to get you in this great home! Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this dream home, in a great location, yours today.

21. 2023-06-18
    historical
22. 2023-05-29
    price $32,000
23. 2023-03-18
    listed $40,000 Active
24. 2003-10-03
    soldstatus
25. 2001-09-14
    soldstatus
26. 1986-01-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,578 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,716/yr (+$143/mo · 108.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,578
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $3,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-28 Listed $179,999 NTREIS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-02-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $174,997 NTREIS
• 2023-06-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-05-29 Price Changed $32,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-18 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2003-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,578 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.