5 Paul Dr · Texarkana, TX 75503

$176,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1960 10,454 sqft lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $177k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming starter home close to Spring Lake Park! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features a versatile bonus room ideal for a third bedroom or home office, bright new windows, and a newer roof (2 years old). Enjoy a nice fenced yard perfect for pets and outdoor living. Convenient location, move-in ready and a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Bonus room
• Convenient location

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• FENCED YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($12/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Texarkana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in TX, #3,241 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime D.
• Texarkana ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #472 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,160 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,739
• List price: $176,000
• Delta: -0.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Desoto Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-5%)	21mo	$183,125	$123	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-28,360
• Equity at exit: $26,242

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,229
• Equity at exit: $15,217

Cash invested: $49,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75503

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,976/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,680

Max offer price $176,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,000
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1504 Colorado St Texarkana, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	0.48mi
4841 N Park Rd Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.5	1260	$1,100	$0.87	43d	1	0.51mi
3514 Sabine Ave Texarkana, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,845	$1.15	43d	1	0.75mi
2 Fernwood Dr Unit A Texarkana, TX	4.0	3.5	2041	$2,200	$1.08	43d	1	0.79mi
6 Fernwood Dr Unit B Texarkana, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$1,695	$1.00	43d	1	0.82mi
4101 Olive St Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.82mi
7 Fernwood Dr Unit A Texarkana, TX	4.0	2.0	2087	$3,249	$1.56	43d	1	0.85mi
3302 Anthony Dr Texarkana, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$850	$0.49	43d	1	0.98mi
722 W 34th St Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	43d	1	0.99mi
3801 Magnolia St Unit MG01 Texarkana, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,000	$0.83	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $176,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $176,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $176,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $176,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $176,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $176,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $176,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $176,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Charming starter home close to Spring Lake Park! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features a versatile bonus room ideal for a third bedroom or home office, bright new windows, and a newer roof (2 years old). Enjoy a nice fenced yard perfect for pets and outdoor living. Convenient location, move-in ready and a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

18. 2026-04-03
    price $180,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Charming starter home close to Spring Lake Park! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features a versatile bonus room ideal for a third bedroom or home office, bright new windows, and a newer roof (2 years old). Enjoy a nice fenced yard perfect for pets and outdoor living. Convenient location, move-in ready and a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

19. 2026-03-17
    price $185,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Charming starter home close to Spring Lake Park! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features a versatile bonus room ideal for a third bedroom or home office, bright new windows, and a newer roof (2 years old). Enjoy a nice fenced yard perfect for pets and outdoor living. Convenient location, move-in ready and a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $180,000 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Charming starter home close to Spring Lake Park! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence features a versatile bonus room ideal for a third bedroom or home office, bright new windows, and a newer roof (2 years old). Enjoy a nice fenced yard perfect for pets and outdoor living. Convenient location, move-in ready and a great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

21. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus
22. 2023-07-20
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2023-07-10
    status Pending
24. 2023-05-13
    listed $179,432 Active
25. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus
26. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus
27. 2016-10-21
    soldstatus
28. 1996-07-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,976 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,859
• − Property taxes: −$3,976
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable loss: −$2,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$692
• After-tax cash flow: $704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texarkana ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842480
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,692
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5867
• State rank: #472 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texarkana

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3241

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texarkana, TX
• County: Bowie County · 61,238 people
• City population: 61,238
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,372
• Household income: $72,159
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.09%
• Current HPI: 181.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $176,000 TBOR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $180,000 TBOR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $185,000 TBOR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $180,000 TBOR
• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-20 Sold (MLS) — TBOR
• 2023-07-10 Pending — TBOR
• 2023-05-13 Listed $179,432 TBOR
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,976 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.