2617 Fetlock Run · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$322,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2026 2,200 sqft lot $257/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! REDTAG SALE! Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, April 26th. Saddlestone at Star Farms at Lakewood Ranch is D. R. Horton's premier destination located in the award-winning master-planned community of Lakewood Ranch. This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,463 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom w

Key facts

• Double-bowl vanity
• Quartz countertops
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE-BOWL VANITY
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Other annual assessment reported
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported $257; total annual fees $3,084; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Association: Access Management); Monthly HOA fee $257; includes grounds maintenance; Association amenities include clubhouse; Association approval required; Community features: fitness center, pool, tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car, approximately 10x20)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water listed as none; Public and underground utilities
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Completed new construction; Faces west; Projected completion March 20, 2026
• Construction: Block, stone and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built by D.R. Horton (model: PEARSON); Builder license CBC039052; Slab foundation; Living area approximately 1,464 sq ft (builder)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Home comes with a home warranty
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1167 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $269,189 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-65,432
• Equity at exit: $48,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-94,283
• Equity at exit: $27,841

Cash invested: $90,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1167
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,689
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$257
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $307,031

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $6	+0% $-85	+5% $-176	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-191	+0% $-85	+5% $22	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $-3	base $-85	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,500
• Closing costs: $9,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2617 Fetlock Run Unit 2617 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,350	$1.61	18d	1	0.02mi
18524 Buckskin Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	26d	1	0.20mi
18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,300	$1.81	26d	1	0.50mi
17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,950	$1.65	26d	1	0.85mi
17649 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,749	$1.64	26d	1	0.86mi
17777 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	23d	1	0.93mi
3222 Bitterroot Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	26d	1	1.01mi
16929 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,700	$1.80	5d	1	1.33mi
17903 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1672	$2,800	$1.67	26d	1	1.39mi
17929 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,000	$2.09	5d	1	1.42mi
17918 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,000	$2.07	26d	1	1.43mi
3109 Novara Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$2,500	$1.82	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $257 · $3,084/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $322,000
3. 2026-04-15
   price $324,000
4. 2026-04-10
   price $327,000
5. 2026-04-03
   price $329,000
6. 2026-03-25
   price $332,000
7. 2026-03-18
   price $334,000
8. 2026-03-13
   price $337,000
9. 2026-03-05
   price $339,000
10. 2026-02-26
    price $342,000
11. 2026-02-10
    price $344,000
12. 2026-01-28
    price $347,000
13. 2025-12-12
    listed $348,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,094/yr (+$91/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,037
• − Property taxes: −$1,579
• − Insurance: −$1,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,584
• − Management: −$2,584
• − HOA: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$9,367
• Taxable loss: −$6,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $322,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $324,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $327,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $332,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $334,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $337,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $342,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $344,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $347,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $348,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid