20695 Dale Evans Pkwy · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1975 1.26 ac lot $173/sqft · 12% below area Est $374k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home on 1.26 acres zoned Commercial-NEC in Apple Valley. Flat, usable parcel with frontage along Dale Evans Pkwy. Property includes a detached two-story garage and a separate shed/workshop, offering flexible utility for storage, work space, or future use. Ideal for owner-user, redevelopment, or future commercial potential. Adjacent parcel also available, creating a rare land assemblage opportunity. Buyer to verify zoning, permitted uses, and utilities.

Key facts

• 1.26 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $199k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.14%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,188
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -46.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,153
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $71,384
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $573	+0% $517	+5% $461	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $431	+0% $517	+5% $603	+10% $688
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $568	base $517	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $199,000 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Manufactured home on 1.26 acres zoned Commercial-NEC in Apple Valley. Flat, usable parcel with frontage along Dale Evans Pkwy. Property includes a detached two-story garage and a separate shed/workshop, offering flexible utility for storage, work space, or future use. Ideal for owner-user, redevelopment, or future commercial potential. Adjacent parcel also available, creating a rare land assemblage opportunity. Buyer to verify zoning, permitted uses, and utilities.

17. 2026-02-14
    listed $219,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Manufactured home on 1.26 acres zoned Commercial-NEC in Apple Valley. Flat, usable parcel with frontage along Dale Evans Pkwy. Property includes a detached two-story garage and a separate shed/workshop, offering flexible utility for storage, work space, or future use. Ideal for owner-user, redevelopment, or future commercial potential. Adjacent parcel also available, creating a rare land assemblage opportunity. Buyer to verify zoning, permitted uses, and utilities.

18. 2026-02-09
    historical $219,000 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Manufactured home on 1.26 acres zoned Commercial-NEC in Apple Valley. Flat, usable parcel with frontage along Dale Evans Pkwy. Property includes a detached two-story garage and a separate shed/workshop, offering flexible utility for storage, work space, or future use. Ideal for owner-user, redevelopment, or future commercial potential. Adjacent parcel also available, creating a rare land assemblage opportunity. Buyer to verify zoning, permitted uses, and utilities.

19. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $110,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Manufactured home with large detached 2 car garage and bonus loft area plus a house close to the Walmart Distribution Center. Zoning was changed from Residential to Office Professional. This listing is for 2 parcels. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Landscaping: Natural Patio and Porch Features: Covered Deck Special Features: None Spa Features: Hauled # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2

20. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Manufactured home with large detached 2 car garage and bonus loft area plus a house close to the Walmart Distribution Center. Zoning was changed from Residential to Office Professional. This listing is for 2 parcels. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Landscaping: Natural Patio and Porch Features: Covered Deck Special Features: None Spa Features: Hauled # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2

21. 2019-06-10
    listed $139,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Manufactured home with large detached 2 car garage and bonus loft area plus a house close to the Walmart Distribution Center. Zoning was changed from Residential to Office Professional. This listing is for 2 parcels. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Landscaping: Natural Patio and Porch Features: Covered Deck Special Features: None Spa Features: Hauled # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2

22. 2016-11-11
    historical
23. 2016-11-11
    historical
24. 2016-10-28
    price $116,999
25. 2016-10-17
    listed $117,000 Active
26. 2016-08-29
    listed $116,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$683/yr (+$57/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $3,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $5,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+70.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Coming Soon $219,000 CRMLS
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2019-06-10 Listed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2016-11-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-11-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-10-28 Price Changed $116,999 CRMLS
• 2016-10-17 Listed $117,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-29 Listed $116,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · -31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.