15203 Greenbelt Dr · Urbandale, IA 50323

$182,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2005 531 sqft lot Est $201k · 9% under $275/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous 2 bed, 2 bath home in great location. Beautiful open floor plan with bamboo floors throughout the main level. 2nd floor laundry, spacious kitchen with center island, large pantry and 2 car attached garage

Key facts

• Open concept
• Attached garage
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 10% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $124,434 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15203 Greenbelt Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$177,000	$168	99
15230 Greenbelt Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	3mo	$172,000	$163	96
15220 Greenbelt Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	6mo	$180,000	$170	94
15234 Alpine Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$193,000	$183	88
15247 Alpine Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	14mo	$195,000	$185	85
4468 154th St	0.14mi	2/2.5	1,140 (+8%)	3mo	$229,990	$202	76
15415 Walnut Hills Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,024 (-3%)	12mo	$240,000	$234	75
4441 154th St	0.11mi	2/2.5	1,140 (+8%)	8mo	$245,000	$215	73
15407 Hammontree Dr	0.22mi	2/2.5	1,144 (+8%)	2mo	$217,500	$190	72
4476 154th St	0.14mi	2/2.5	1,140 (+8%)	11mo	$235,000	$206	69
15445 Walnut Hills Dr	0.25mi	2/2.5	1,144 (+8%)	9mo	$214,900	$188	65
4452 154th St	0.13mi	2/2.5	1,196 (+13%)	11mo	$245,000	$205	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $19,319
• Equity at exit: $101,292

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $77,869
• Equity at exit: $173,081

Cash invested: $51,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,720/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,943

Max offer price $124,434

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-277	+0% $-329	+5% $-380	+10% $-432
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-389	+0% $-329	+5% $-268	+10% $-208
Rate	-1.0pp $-237	-0.5pp $-282	base $-329	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,625
• Closing costs: $5,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15211 Greenbelt Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	21d	1	0.02mi
15221 Alpine Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	45d	1	0.03mi
4315 152nd Ct Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,495	$1.21	16d	1	0.11mi
4304 153rd Pl Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,450	$1.17	23d	1	0.11mi
4307 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,850	$1.28	25d	1	0.13mi
4304 154th St Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,595	$1.29	45d	1	0.15mi
15403 Aurora Ave Unit 1 Urbandale, IA	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	25d	1	0.31mi
4015 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,295	$1.61	21d	1	0.40mi
4454 142nd St Urbandale, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,190	$1.25	16d	6	0.81mi
3504 163rd St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,245	$1.54	21d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $182,500 Active
3. 2025-12-07
   historical
4. 2025-12-02
   status Active
5. 2025-11-26
   historical
6. 2025-11-23
   status Active
7. 2025-11-22
   historical
8. 2025-11-07
   price $180,000
9. 2025-08-06
   price $183,900
10. 2025-07-09
    price $186,900
11. 2025-06-12
    price $189,900
12. 2025-05-22
    listed $192,500 Active
13. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus $124,000 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous 2 bed, 2 bath home in great location. Beautiful open floor plan with bamboo floors throughout the main level. 2nd floor laundry, spacious kitchen with center island, large pantry and 2 car attached garage

14. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus $124,000

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous 2 bed, 2 bath home in great location. Beautiful open floor plan with bamboo floors throughout the main level. 2nd floor laundry, spacious kitchen with center island, large pantry and 2 car attached garage

15. 2017-06-19
    listed $123,500 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Fabulous 2 bed, 2 bath home in great location. Beautiful open floor plan with bamboo floors throughout the main level. 2nd floor laundry, spacious kitchen with center island, large pantry and 2 car attached garage

16. 2008-01-30
    soldstatus $112,000
17. 2007-08-17
    listed $109,900
18. 2005-09-26
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,793 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,223
• − Property taxes: −$2,720
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$5,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,698
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $182,500 DMMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-11-23 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $180,000 DMMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $183,900 DMMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $186,900 DMMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $189,900 DMMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $192,500 DMMLS
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-01 Sold (MLS) $124,000 DMMLS
• 2017-06-19 Listed $123,500 DMMLS
• 2008-01-30 Sold (MLS) $112,000 DMMLS
• 2007-08-17 Listed $109,900 DMMLS
• 2005-09-26 Listed $119,900 DMMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,720 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.