623 W Commerce St · Crowell, TX 79227

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2019

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Picture perfect package! VERY NICE 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home on 3 Lots! Built in 2019, This crisp and clean home offers over 1700 ft. of spacious living. Large living room and dining area overlooks spacious kitchen that has plenty of cabinet space, nice size pantry and island. The bedrooms are roomier than expected with good size closets, and ceiling fans. An oversized laundry room connects to the kitchen and master bathroom and the privacy fenced yard features a shed , concrete patio with cover.

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#511 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Crowell ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #917 of 1,141 in TX (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Foard County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,817 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,253
• Equity at exit: $52,559

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,687
• Equity at exit: $68,278

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79227

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $136,945

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-85	+0% $-131	+5% $-176	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-178	+0% $-131	+5% $-83	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-90	base $-131	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $160,000 Active
13. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,151 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,151
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815870
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,747
• Composite: 31.83/100
• National rank: #11074
• State rank: #917 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Crowell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #10114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crowell, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,155

Population outlook (Foard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,129 people
• By 2030: 1,083 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 1,008 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 965 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 1,012 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 1,089 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Foard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 16.9% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+52.8 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Current HPI: 62.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,151 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.