2512 Farrier Ln · Aubrey, TX 76227

$257,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 6,229 sqft lot $193/sqft · 20% below area Est $323k · 20% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Highpointe Ranch subdivision
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee of $600; Association fee includes full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Legacy Southwest Property Management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front)
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Prewired security
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Not attached to another property; New construction (incomplete, 2026)
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone and siding exterior; Composition (shingle) roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Concrete, curbs and sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Natural stone/granite counters; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Thermostat (energy-efficient features)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,708 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,785
• List price: $257,999
• Delta: 0.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2020 Belgian Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-2%)	1mo	$231,824	$177	68
2055 Stable Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-3%)	2mo	$239,149	$184	68
2017 Welsh Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-3%)	2mo	$238,824	$183	66
1621 Meadow Crst	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-4%)	1mo	$294,950	$231	64
1640 Meadow Crest Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,393 (+4%)	2mo	$299,940	$215	64
2040 Sulky Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	2mo	$241,674	$167	60
2025 Sulky Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	2mo	$242,674	$167	58
2029 Belgian Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+9%)	1mo	$241,999	$166	58
804 Dressage Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	0mo	$236,824	$163	56
2001 Sulky Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	2mo	$242,674	$167	56
1641 Meadow Crest Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+12%)	2mo	$300,231	$200	50
1713 Meadow Crest Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+12%)	2mo	$302,172	$202	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-64,332
• Equity at exit: $38,468

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-99,861
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $219,916

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-174	+0% $-263	+5% $-352	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-342	+0% $-263	+5% $-185	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-198	base $-263	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2061 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,116	$1.28	26d	1	0.49mi
2051 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.54mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.54mi
2037 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,995	$1.16	22d	1	0.55mi
2029 Welsh Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,066	$1.36	14d	1	0.55mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	14d	1	0.55mi
2028 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,899	$1.30	0d	1	0.56mi
2043 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	19d	1	0.56mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	26d	1	0.57mi
2031 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,950	$1.29	8d	1	0.58mi
2021 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.59mi
2009 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	7d	1	0.61mi
1641 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	0.63mi
717 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,750	$1.15	45d	1	0.63mi
732 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,986	$1.30	45d	1	0.64mi
728 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	17d	1	0.65mi
1713 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	0.68mi
213 S Magnolia St Aubrey, TX	2.0	2.5	1261	$1,395	$1.11	45d	1	0.85mi
206 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	26d	1	1.13mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	7d	1	1.15mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	46d	1	1.15mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	20d	1	1.28mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	4d	1	1.30mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	1.36mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	6d	1	1.37mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	5d	1	1.49mi
513 Rock Hill Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,499	$1.44	0d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   status $257,999 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,999 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,999 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,999 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $257,999 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,999 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,999 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $322,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $322,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $322,999 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $322,999 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $322,999 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $322,999 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $322,999 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $322,999 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $322,999 Active 453-char remark
19. 2026-03-29
    price $322,999 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2026-03-22
    listed $321,999 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$7,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $257,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $322,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $322,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $321,999 Zillow