863 Manatee Rd · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1973 6,534 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Naples living with Gulf-access boating lifestyle! Located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Riverwood Estates, this well-maintained property offers approximately 6,500 sq ft lot size and an unbeatable opportunity to enjoy Southwest Florida at an affordable price point. Residents enjoy access to the community’s private boat ramp with direct access to the Gulf through beautiful Rookery Bay and the Ten Thousand Islands. Low yearly HOA fees, pet-friendly atmosphere, and optional private pool membership make this community one of Naples’ hidden gems. Conveniently located close to Marco Island, downtown Naples, restaurants, shopping, and beaches. Whether you’re

Key facts

• Private boat ramp
• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• GULF-ACCESS BOATING LIFESTYLE
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE GULF
• PET-FRIENDLY ATMOSPHERE
• CLOSE TO MARCO ISLAND
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN NAPLES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a community of approximately 200 units; Single-unit building within the complex; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee of $250; Master HOA fee $250 annually; Professional management; HOA covers street maintenance; Community amenities include a pool, community boat dock and ramp, gulf boat access, and a fishing pier; Community type: Boating; Total annual recurring fees $500

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Paved driveway; Attached 2-car carport
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Traditional style; Single-story; Rear exposure faces south; Located in Riverwood Estates (unrecorded subdivision)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Built in 1973; Vinyl siding exterior; Built-up/flat and metal roofing
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Built-up/flat roof; Metal roof; Windows—see remarks; Landscaped view; Central irrigation; Boat canopy/cover; Boat ramp; Composite dock

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom ADA accessible
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable pre-wiring available; Closet cabinets; High-speed internet available; Formal dining area; Laundry located in the garage; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $140k implies a 327% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.95%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,146
• Equity at exit: $30,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $67,014
• Equity at exit: $29,468

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $523/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Rookery Bay Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,772	$1.91	23d	9	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $140,000 Active
16. 2025-05-09
    historical
17. 2025-02-13
    price $199,900
18. 2024-05-21
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $32,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $523 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 122.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$523
• − Insurance: −$5,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$982
• After-tax cash flow: $4,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+326.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $140,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $199,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $225,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $523 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.