9336 Chiswell Trl · Palmetto, FL 34221

$301,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,840 sqft lot 2-car garage $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Spruce at 9336 Chiswell Trail in Cove at Coasterra! This single-story layout offers comfortable, modern living with an open kitchen that connects effortlessly to the dining area and spacious great room, all overlooking a patio. The primary suite is tucked away for privacy and features a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bath. A flexible bonus room, convenient laundry, welcoming porch, and two-car garage complete this well-balanced and practical home design. In this amenity-rich master-planned community, enjoy natural beauty, four pools at Club Coasterra, a lakeside pavilion, fitness spaces, and cabanas overlooking a 65-acre lake. Additional centers offer pools, a dog park, and a 20-acre lake. Explore a 160-acre nature park with trails. Located off Buckeye Road, with easy access to I-75, Sarasota, and Tampa. Additional Highlights Include: quartz countertops. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Flat lot
• Flex room

Tags

• LOW HOA DUES
• FLAT LOT
• CLOSE TO TRAILS
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $301,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $301k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $273,910 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,000
• List price: $301,000
• Delta: -7.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13808 Shellmore Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,603 (0%)	3mo	$315,999	$197	94
13513 Shellmore Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+0%)	0mo	$334,630	$208	86
9138 Dalera Cv	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+0%)	4mo	$325,000	$202	84
9333 Chiswell Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	0mo	$293,999	$202	84
13424 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+0%)	1mo	$339,000	$211	84
13412 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+0%)	2mo	$345,500	$215	82
13709 Shellmore Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	2mo	$305,999	$210	80
13816 Shellmore Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	5mo	$291,364	$200	78
9332 Chiswell Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	5mo	$280,250	$193	76
13435 Shellmore Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-8%)	4mo	$294,000	$198	75
10527 Curving Creek Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-5%)	0mo	$323,500	$213	57
10484 Curving Creek Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-5%)	1mo	$319,990	$210	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,061
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-101,798
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,990 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 154 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $305,877

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-20	+0% $-132	+5% $-244	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-241	+0% $-132	+5% $-24	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-49	base $-132	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,480	$1.82	19d	1	0.78mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	52d	1	1.20mi
11752 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,500	$1.58	17d	1	1.30mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	65d	1	1.33mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	70d	1	1.37mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	69d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty providedCDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,100Monthly HOA amount: $58Total monthly fees reported: $58Total annual fees reported: $696
• HOA & community: HOA: Cove at Coasterra (monthly fee $58)Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenanceAssociation approval requiredCommunity amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, pickleball courts, recreation facilities, trails, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, golf carts allowedPets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedFiber opticsSewer connectedWater connectedUnderground utilitiesSprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-07-31)One storyFaces northeast
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: Taylor Morrison (model: Spruce)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsPaved road accessIrrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWindow treatmentsGreat Room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundry room

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $301,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $301,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,999 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,999 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $299,999 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,999 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-08-01
   price $299,999 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $319,999 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $319,999 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $319,999 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $319,999 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $319,999 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $319,999 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $319,999 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $319,999 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $319,999 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $319,999 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $319,999 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $319,999 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,999 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,999 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $319,999 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $319,999 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $319,999 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $319,999 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $319,999 Active 73 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $319,999 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $319,999 Active 70 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    price $319,999 Active 69 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $316,999 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $316,999 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $316,999 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $316,999 Active 66 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $316,999 Active 65 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $316,999 Active 64 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $316,999 Active 63 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $316,999 Active 61 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $316,999 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $316,999 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $316,999 Active 55 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $316,999 Active 54 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $316,999 Active 53 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $316,999 Active 52 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $316,999 Active 50 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $316,999 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $316,999 Active 47 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $316,999 Active 46 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $316,999 Active 45 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $316,999 Active 44 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,999 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout with a kitchen, bathrooms, and living areas. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and appeal to eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty providedCDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,100Monthly HOA amount: $58Total monthly fees reported: $58Total annual fees reported: $696
• HOA & community: HOA: Cove at Coasterra (monthly fee $58)Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenanceAssociation approval requiredCommunity amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, pickleball courts, recreation facilities, trails, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, golf carts allowedPets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedFiber opticsSewer connectedWater connectedUnderground utilitiesSprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-07-31)One storyFaces northeast
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: Taylor Morrison (model: Spruce)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsPaved road accessIrrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWindow treatmentsGreat Room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundry room

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $316,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $316,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $313,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Listed $313,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid