535 Ayer Rd · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$179,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,207 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1947 0.38 ac lot $149/sqft · 48% below area Est $349k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great affordable Cape Cod with tons of updates. In last 10 years owner has updated all windows and doors, roof, furnace, electric, plumbing, new deck and front porch and siding. Great yard with plenty of room for a garage. Wonderful family room. Great buy in convenient location. Second floor is plumbed for a second bath.

Key facts

• Furnace one year old
• Galley kitchen
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• BONUS ROOM
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• FURNACE ONE YEAR OLD
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as resale / fixer

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story building (1 story); Vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Existing construction; Rectangular lot, near public transit; Lot dimensions approximately 65 x 254
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Covered porch; Patio; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom; Second-level loft; Second-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylights; Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceiling(s); Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $180k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $179,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,559
• List price: $179,800
• Delta: -48.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
284 Ayer Rd	0.47mi	2/1.5	1,254 (+4%)	11mo	$340,000	$271	60
363 Country Pkwy	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,044 (-14%)	1mo	$260,000	$249	58
158 6th Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (-0%)	7mo	$400,000	$332	53
286 Country Pkwy	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,103 (-9%)	11mo	$325,000	$295	47
48 Hollybrook Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-7%)	20mo	$335,000	$299	43
1465 Maple Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (+3%)	18mo	$310,000	$250	38
225 Ayer Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,376 (+14%)	10mo	$287,000	$209	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,187
• Equity at exit: $26,809

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $44,717
• Equity at exit: $15,546

Cash invested: $50,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,833/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,798

Max offer price $179,800

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $384	+0% $333	+5% $282	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $158	-5% $246	+0% $333	+5% $421	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $379	base $333	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,950
• Closing costs: $5,394
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Northwood Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,145	$2.68	3d	1	0.98mi
10 Arielle Ct Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,235	$2.10	3d	10	1.03mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	1.27mi
8040 Roll Rd East Amherst, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,175	$2.92	3d	3	1.40mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	12d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 1164-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   price $179,800 1164-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $179,900 Active 1164-char remark
4. 2014-07-30
   soldstatus $83,000 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Great affordable Cape Cod with tons of updates. In last 10 years owner has updated all windows and doors, roof, furnace, electric, plumbing, new deck and front porch and siding. Great yard with plenty of room for a garage. Wonderful family room. Great buy in convenient location. Second floor is plumbed for a second bath.

5. 2014-07-29
   soldstatus $83,000
6. 2014-02-19
   listed $99,900 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Great affordable Cape Cod with tons of updates. In last 10 years owner has updated all windows and doors, roof, furnace, electric, plumbing, new deck and front porch and siding. Great yard with plenty of room for a garage. Wonderful family room. Great buy in convenient location. Second floor is plumbed for a second bath.

7. 2013-03-19
   listed $119,900
8. 1995-12-12
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,833 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,833 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,072
• − Property taxes: −$4,833
• − Insurance: −$899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$5,231
• Taxable income: $1,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$322
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+286.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $179,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-07-30 Sold (MLS) $83,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-19 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-03-19 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 1995-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,833 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.