41 Catamaran Ct #41 · Mount Arlington, NJ 07856-1433

$678,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,760 sqft · Townhouse · 76 Days on market

Built 2003 $680/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lake Living at Its Best! Experience effortless lake life in this spacious, beautifully maintained townhome with a maintenance-free exterior. Spanning three levels of comfortable living, this home features stunning custom hardwood floors that have been recently refinished and 10-foot ceilings that enhance the open, airy feel throughout. The large kitchen is perfect for entertaining, complete with granite countertops, a full-size island, and well-kept wood cabinetry that seamlessly flows into the dining area and living room, centered around a cozy three-sided fireplace. The ground level offers brand new carpeting, fresh neutral paint, and convenient access from the garage to one of two oversi

Key facts

• Full size island
• 10 foot ceilings
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CUSTOM HARDWOOD FLOORS
• 10 FOOT CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FULL SIZE ISLAND
• WELL KEPT WOOD CABINETRY
• THREE SIDED FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $678k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $678k).
• Recommended offer: $637k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#238 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Arlington Public School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #242 of 472 in NJ (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,357 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (1,496 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Morris County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $190k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($637k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $637,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $142,754
• Equity at exit: $304,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $424,191
• Equity at exit: $469,823

Cash invested: $189,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07856-1433

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$848 /mo · $10,170/yr
• Insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,679
• Net cashflow: $951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,792

Max offer price $678,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,419	-5% $1,185	+0% $951	+5% $716	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $635	+0% $951	+5% $1,266	+10% $1,582
Rate	-1.0pp $1,292	-0.5pp $1,123	base $951	+0.5pp $775	+1.0pp $596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,500
• Closing costs: $20,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Kingsland Rd Landing, NJ	3.0	3.5	3451	$7,995	$2.32	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-10
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-10-26
   listed $678,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $95,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,979
• − Property taxes: −$10,170
• − Insurance: −$3,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,675
• − Management: −$7,675
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$19,724
• Taxable income: $1,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $11,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Arlington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3410860
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $78,955
• Composite: 34.24/100
• National rank: #5257
• State rank: #242 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Mount Arlington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #6573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Arlington, NJ

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 516,747 people
• By 2030: 524,603 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 539,582 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 548,986 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 571,326 · +10.6%
• By 2100: 561,122 · +8.6%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Pending — GSMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listed $678,000 GSMLS