10517 Junco Rd · Fort Worth, TX 76140

$277,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,954 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 5,271 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Eagles Crossing - Whitetail Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($89/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Everman ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #691 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John And Polly Townley El (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 365 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 77% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 374 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,808 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-50,781
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,662
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76140

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $277,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $86	+0% $7	+5% $-71	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-78	+0% $7	+5% $93	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $78	base $7	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1680 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,895	$1.34	13d	1	0.13mi
1644 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,860	$1.33	44d	1	0.14mi
1633 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,905	$1.50	44d	1	0.18mi
1616 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,980	$1.24	25d	1	0.21mi
1617 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.22mi
1612 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,925	$1.36	44d	1	0.22mi
1461 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,739	$1.37	8d	1	0.39mi
1433 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1316	$2,075	$1.58	44d	1	0.43mi
1432 Silver Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	1550	$2,143	$1.38	25d	1	0.43mi
1424 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,590	$1.19	13d	1	0.44mi
1800 Oak Grove Rd E Burleson, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1392	$2,295	$1.65	2d	14	0.44mi
1408 Silver Spruce Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	19d	1	0.47mi
10628 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,740	$1.33	4d	1	0.51mi
10213 S Race St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,961	$1.08	22d	1	0.54mi
1412 Royal Meadows Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,779	$1.13	3d	1	0.69mi
1300 Hazelnut Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,300	$1.59	5d	1	0.76mi
1456 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	5d	1	0.97mi
1312 Nelson Pl Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,820	$1.48	44d	1	0.97mi
10613 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,550	$1.17	44d	1	1.01mi
10525 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,849	$1.28	3d	1	1.02mi
1421 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	2d	1	1.03mi
1324 Sierra Blanca Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	1.04mi
1417 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,295	$1.07	8d	1	1.06mi
9637 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,155	$1.01	22d	1	1.07mi
10640 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,696	$1.19	8d	1	1.07mi
1401 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	13d	1	1.08mi
9609 Klondike Dr Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.5	2501	$2,615	$1.05	22d	1	1.08mi
10632 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,750	$1.27	25d	1	1.08mi
1540 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	5d	1	1.09mi
1532 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.5	2501	$2,465	$0.99	44d	1	1.09mi
9632 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	44d	1	1.09mi
1533 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,519	$1.18	44d	1	1.12mi
1317 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,400	$1.13	13d	1	1.12mi
9609 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,175	$1.24	8d	1	1.12mi
1513 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,519	$1.18	25d	1	1.13mi
1505 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	20d	1	1.14mi
1524 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,520	$1.18	5d	1	1.14mi
1329 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,320	$1.29	5d	1	1.14mi
1508 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,328	$1.35	8d	1	1.15mi
10436 Phantom Hill Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,885	$1.26	8d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   price $277,999
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $310,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,087 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,106/yr (+$342/mo · 418.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$4,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Everman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,803
• Composite: 22.77/100
• National rank: #8027
• State rank: #691 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,321
• Household income: $75,955
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.54%
• Current HPI: 285.9894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $277,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $310,999 NTREIS