12602 Crest Springs Ln #1331 · Alafaya, FL 32828

$199,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Condo public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1998 $216/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Active with Contract. Beautiful 1BR/1Bath condo located in a well maintained, beautiful complex. Located convienently close to major highways and shopping areas. Community and management company offers many ammenities.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community pool
• Well-kept community

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY PORCH
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• OUTDOOR GATHERING AREAS
• WELL-KEPT COMMUNITY
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $2,592; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: The Crest at Waterford Lakes; Monthly condo/association fee: $216; Association fees include maintenance of structure and grounds, management, pest control, pool, and trash; Association fee required; Community amenities: Fitness center, playground, pool; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; 3 total stories; One level unit; Faces east; Located on the 3rd floor
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 320 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $648 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-734 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $200k implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,179 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.37% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,274
• Equity at exit: $54,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,436
• Equity at exit: $62,556

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32828

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,271/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $168,179

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12101 Fountainbrook Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,534	$1.58	2d	17	0.54mi
1301 Waterford Oak Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,699	$1.79	2d	14	0.59mi
12000 Bryonia Rd Alafaya, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,684	$1.72	2d	14	1.03mi
12221 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,782	$2.18	3d	10	1.28mi
13645 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,885	$2.20	3d	10	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $216 · $2,592/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $199,900 Active
16. 2011-10-28
    soldstatus $43,800 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Active with Contract. Beautiful 1BR/1Bath condo located in a well maintained, beautiful complex. Located convienently close to major highways and shopping areas. Community and management company offers many ammenities.

17. 2011-08-30
    listed $43,000 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Active with Contract. Beautiful 1BR/1Bath condo located in a well maintained, beautiful complex. Located convienently close to major highways and shopping areas. Community and management company offers many ammenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,271
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $-821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 69,202
• Household income: $101,767
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2213.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 23% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Current HPI: 284.5182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+364.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-28 Sold (MLS) $43,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-30 Listed $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,271 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.