646 W Jahns Ct · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2004 6,278 sqft lot Est $249k · at est. $53/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seize the chance to own this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence in Desert Crossing! Discover a spacious living room with a soothing palette and stylish wood-look flooring. The eat-in kitchen comes with granite counters, ample wood cabinetry, a tile backsplash, built-in appliances, and a walk-in pantry for storing culinary essentials. The primary bedroom showcases soft carpeting, a private bathroom, and a practical walk-in closet. Unwind at the end of a long day in the backyard, which offers a covered patio and plenty of space for outdoor relaxation. Don't miss your chance to own this adorable home!

Key facts

• Built-in appliances
• Eat-in kitchen
• Wood cabinetry

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• WOOD CABINETRY
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $53 covering grounds maintenance; Community playground; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Heating noted in remarks
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($860/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $249k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,762 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
669 W Silver Reef Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,384 (0%)	4mo	$260,000	$188	94
659 W Jahns Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+12%)	0mo	$277,900	$180	78
569 W Jardin Loop	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-3%)	6mo	$259,500	$194	73
667 W Jardin Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+10%)	2mo	$260,000	$172	70
684 W Jardin Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+10%)	1mo	$266,000	$175	69
592 W Gabrilla Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+13%)	2mo	$310,000	$198	68
692 W Jardin Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+10%)	6mo	$262,000	$172	64
727 W Judi Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+13%)	1mo	$296,000	$189	64
771 W Fairlane Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+8%)	2mo	$260,000	$175	62
556 W Jardin Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+9%)	10mo	$195,000	$129	59
639 W Kingman Loop	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+10%)	9mo	$250,000	$164	55
119 W Silver Reef Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (-4%)	9mo	$250,000	$188	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,471
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,333
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $142	+0% $72	+5% $1	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-10	+0% $72	+5% $153	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $135	base $72	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	26d	1	0.24mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	26d	1	0.29mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	26d	1	0.30mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	0.39mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	6d	1	0.50mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	26d	1	0.57mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	26d	1	0.66mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.69mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	26d	1	0.71mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	6d	1	0.88mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.89mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	17d	1	1.07mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.09mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	23d	1	1.09mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	1.09mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.10mi
1641 N Kadota Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	0d	3	1.17mi
1564 N Morrison Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	871	$1,318	$1.51	0d	19	1.27mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	23d	3	1.29mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	17d	1	1.32mi
1010 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	920	$1,100	$1.20	14d	1	1.45mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,723	$1.67	0d	31	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $249,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $249,000 Active
5. 2026-05-07
   soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $249,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.