864 River Birch Cir · Dexter, MI 48103

$32,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks at 864 River Birch in desirable Ann Arbor! Priced at just $32,000, this property is the perfect chance for investors, flippers, or ambitious buyers looking to build equity fast. With solid bones and endless potential, this home only needs a light rehab to unlock its true value. Whether youre searching for your next rental, fix-and-flip, or affordable entry into the Ann Arbor market, this is the kind of deal that doesnt come around often. Bring your vision, add your finishing touches, and transform this hidden gem into a standout property. Affordable, full of potential, and located in one of Michigans most sought-after areas this is an opportunity you dont want to miss!

Key facts

• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• Cap rate 68.1% vs local median 1.8% in Dexter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in MI, #1,011 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Ann Arbor Public Schools (urban): math 71% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #6 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $32,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 220.62%
• DSCR: 10.82
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.39×
• Total profit: $93,107
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.26×
• Total profit: $190,514
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48103

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,669	-5% $1,658	+0% $1,647	+5% $1,636	+10% $1,625
Rent	-10% $1,460	-5% $1,554	+0% $1,647	+5% $1,741	+10% $1,834
Rate	-1.0pp $1,663	-0.5pp $1,655	base $1,647	+0.5pp $1,639	+1.0pp $1,631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6655 Jackson Rd Ann Arbor, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	5d	1	0.20mi
305 Timberland Dr Ann Arbor, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1270	$3,625	$2.85	0d	113	0.78mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 697-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $32,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $20,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,915
• After-tax cash flow: $14,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ann Arbor Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602820
• Math proficiency: 71% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,768
• Composite: 65.34/100
• National rank: #487
• State rank: #6 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #1011

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washtenaw County · 306,860 people
• Metro: Ann Arbor, MI
• Population (ZIP): 55,054
• Household income: $116,194
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2033.0

Population outlook (Washtenaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 402,878 people
• By 2030: 424,104 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 464,633 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 504,728 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 614,463 · +52.5%
• By 2100: 676,181 · +67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washtenaw

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.4) · D 71.0% · R 26.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.4 2020: D+46.6 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -472.49%
• Current HPI: 244.6891
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Ann Arbor, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $32,000 ForSaleByOwner.com