5225 Brookfield Ln · Harris Hill, NY 14031

$474,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1964 0.82 ac lot $200/sqft · 18% below area Est $624k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Carefully maintained and beautifully spacious, this center-entrance Colonial is tucked away on a quiet Clarence street just moments from the Clarence Bike Path, Brookfield Country Club and many amenities. A welcoming front porch invites you to relax and enjoy peaceful summer evenings. Inside, the large living room is anchored by a gas fireplace framed with new custom built-in bookcases, creating a warm and inviting focal point. Coffered ceilings add timeless character and continue seamlessly into the adjoining dining room. The sunroom overlooks the deep backyard and fills the home with natural light, offering flexible space for both dining and everyday living. With its own heat source, it s

Key facts

• Coffered ceilings
• Gas fireplace
• Sunroom

Tags

• CENTER-ENTRANCE COLONIAL
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN BOOKCASES
• COFFERED CEILINGS
• SUNROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with door opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Water available / public water (note: also listed as not connected); Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing structure; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.82 acre, dimensions 125 x 284)
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open patio; Porch; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (one located on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Sliding glass doors; Skylights; Accessible bedroom; Low cabinetry; Low-threshold shower; Bedroom on main level; Primary bedroom with bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $475k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $420,000 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,291
• List price: $474,900
• Delta: -23.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5327 Briannas Nook	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,277 (-4%)	3mo	$630,000	$277	74
8918 Hurlburt Ln	0.22mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,417 (+2%)	10mo	$515,000	$213	71
5390 Briannas Nook	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,335 (-2%)	7mo	$670,000	$287	69
5286 Thompson Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,497 (+5%)	6mo	$400,000	$160	60
5354 Thompson Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,525 (+6%)	8mo	$575,000	$228	57
4900 Cliffside Dr W	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,504 (+5%)	8mo	$440,000	$176	56
5336 Briannas Nook	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,067 (-13%)	9mo	$590,000	$285	55
5085 Meadowbrook Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+2%)	7mo	$656,000	$272	53
5000 Brookfield Ln	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,626 (+10%)	11mo	$420,000	$160	49
8961 The Fairways	0.47mi	4/1.5	2,103 (-12%)	10mo	$425,000	$202	48
9005 Cliffside Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,556 (+8%)	12mo	$585,000	$229	45
4857 Shimerville Rd	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,672 (+12%)	12mo	$504,000	$189	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-69,348
• Equity at exit: $70,809

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-50,558
• Equity at exit: $41,061

Cash invested: $132,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,126/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,049

Max offer price $474,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,725
• Closing costs: $14,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5558 Marthas Vineyard Clarence Center, NY	4.0	2.5	2454	$4,200	$1.71	11d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $474,900 Active 2046-char remark
2. 2002-09-05
   soldstatus $194,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,126 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,076 · $590/mo
• Expected delta: +$950/yr (+$79/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,602
• − Property taxes: −$6,126
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,032
• − Management: −$4,032
• − Depreciation: −$13,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $3,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+144.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $474,900 WNYREIS
• 2002-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,126 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.