30002 Walton Heath Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$259,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 257 Days on market

Built 2024 10,232 sqft lot $123/sqft · 18% below area Est $297k · 12% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1,977 sq ft home in Grand Oaks Reserve features 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, an office space, and an open-concept dining, family room, and kitchen area. The primary bedroom includes double sinks and a walk-in closet. Additional features include a double-car garage. Community amenities include a 9-hole golf course, pool, clubhouse, and more.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,733 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,923
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -12.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10100 Oakland Hills Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,014 (-5%)	5mo	$301,990	$150	78
10019 Oakland Hills Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,157 (+2%)	7mo	$315,990	$146	78
10120 Oakland Hills Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-7%)	1mo	$260,000	$132	74
10238 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-9%)	7mo	$285,990	$149	72
20078 Swinley Forest Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-14%)	1mo	$255,900	$141	67
10110 Oakland Hills Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-12%)	5mo	$289,990	$156	67
10338 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-10%)	7mo	$266,900	$140	60
10258 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-14%)	5mo	$284,880	$156	59
10291 Pelican Hill Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-14%)	6mo	$262,900	$144	59
40122 Spyglass Hill Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+9%)	4mo	$303,900	$131	58
10621 Ellerston Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-14%)	4mo	$271,400	$149	58
40132 Spyglass Hill Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,005 (-6%)	8mo	$274,900	$137	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-51,569
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,839
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$485 /mo · $5,824/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $226,733

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-114	+0% $-188	+5% $-261	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-279	+0% $-188	+5% $-97	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-122	base $-188	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11040 Pelican Hill Ln Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,200	$0.85	4d	1	0.23mi
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	0d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $259,900 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,900 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,900 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,900 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,900 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,900 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,900 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,900 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,900 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,900 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $277,900 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    This 1,977 sq ft home in Grand Oaks Reserve features 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, an office space, and an open-concept dining, family room, and kitchen area. The primary bedroom includes double sinks and a walk-in closet. Additional features include a double-car garage. Community amenities include a 9-hole golf course, pool, clubhouse, and more.

17. 2025-10-07
    listed $269,900 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    This 1,977 sq ft home in Grand Oaks Reserve features 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, an office space, and an open-concept dining, family room, and kitchen area. The primary bedroom includes double sinks and a walk-in closet. Additional features include a double-car garage. Community amenities include a 9-hole golf course, pool, clubhouse, and more.

18. 2025-07-16
    historical
19. 2025-06-18
    price $269,900
20. 2025-06-07
    price $285,900
21. 2025-05-18
    price $289,900
22. 2025-04-24
    price $299,900
23. 2025-04-05
    price $319,900
24. 2025-03-19
    price $329,000
25. 2025-03-01
    listed $339,000 Active
26. 2024-07-30
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2024-07-09
    status Pending
28. 2024-06-27
    price $244,990
29. 2024-06-18
    price $259,990
30. 2024-05-10
    price $257,990
31. 2024-05-01
    price $269,990
32. 2024-04-25
    price $259,990
33. 2024-04-15
    price $266,990
34. 2024-03-14
    price $269,990
35. 2024-01-19
    listed $272,990 Active
36. 2022-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,824 · $485/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,824 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$5,824
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $277,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $285,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $257,990 HARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed $272,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+49.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,824 · +558.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.