222 Meadow Lake Dr · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1996 5,009 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $180k · at est. $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Key facts

• Backyard for pets
• Large fenced lot
• Close to dining

Tags

• LARGE FENCED LOT
• QUIET LAKE NEIGHBORHOOD
• BACKYARD FOR PETS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Loon Bay; County: Henderson; Listing terms: For Sale; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Treated as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Loon Bay); HOA fee $130 annually; Association fee covers management fees

Exterior

• Parking: No covered or carport spaces specified
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1996; Preowned
• Construction: Year built: 1996
• Exterior features: Circular driveway; Other driveway/parking features; Lot less than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.115 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wainscoting; One level; 4 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($320/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,494 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,990
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -2.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Doe Run Rd	0.14mi	3/3.0	1,026 (-3%)	11mo	$108,900	$106	75
136 Harbor Dr	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (-3%)	1mo	$549,000	$536	72
135 Oak Haven Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	6mo	$155,000	$154	70
210 Harbor Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+8%)	3mo	$325,000	$285	60
134 Harbor Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$399,900	$347	59
281 Harbor Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+3%)	12mo	$169,999	$156	47
306 Bounding Main St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (-6%)	18mo	$75,000	$76	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-31,195
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-42,508
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,401/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $76	+0% $27	+5% $-23	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-35	+0% $27	+5% $88	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $71	base $27	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Wildflower Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,624	$1.20	45d	1	0.37mi
149 Sunset Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	26d	1	0.55mi
138 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,235	$0.95	14d	1	0.58mi
158 Westview Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	8d	1	0.58mi
140 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,480	$1.14	45d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    historical
20. 2026-02-26
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2024-10-29
    soldstatus Closed 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

22. 2024-10-10
    status Pending 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

23. 2024-10-04
    historical Active Option Contract 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

24. 2024-08-04
    price $165,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

25. 2024-07-18
    price $170,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

26. 2024-06-13
    price $175,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

27. 2024-06-06
    price $182,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

28. 2024-05-11
    listed $185,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    Cute and cozy 3-2 on a large fenced lot. This cottage-style home will not last long. The property is located in a lake neighborhood and has a fully fenced yard. Located close to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

29. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus
30. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus Closed
31. 2022-07-18
    status Pending
32. 2022-07-13
    listed $149,900
33. 2022-07-13
    listed $149,900 Active
34. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus
36. 2015-08-10
    status Pending
37. 2015-07-25
    listed $59,000 Active
38. 2015-07-25
    listed $59,000
39. 2000-11-13
    soldstatus
40. 2000-09-05
    soldstatus
41. 2000-01-04
    soldstatus
42. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,401 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$802/yr (+$67/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,401
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+196.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-10-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-08-04 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $182,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-11 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2022-07-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-13 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2022-07-13 Listed $149,900 HCBOR
• 2015-10-05 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2015-10-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-08-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-07-25 Listed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2015-07-25 Listed $59,000 HCBOR
• 2000-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,401 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.