916 E Birch Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 Fair condition 7,840 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $183k · 37% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

916 E Birch Dr in Gulfport offers the opportunity to create something truly your own on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. This spacious fixer-upper is full of potential and features a functional layout with generous living spaces, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an additional bonus room that could be used as a home office, playroom, second living area, hobby space, or extra storage, and plenty of room to customize to fit your needs and vision. Inside, you'll find comfortable living areas filled with natural light, durable flooring throughout much of the home, ample kitchen cabinet space, and a layout designed for practical everyday living.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Bonus room
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BONUS ROOM
• COVERED PATIO AREA
• LARGE BACKYARD
• WORKSHOP STORAGE SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.2% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 975 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.85%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,096
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -37.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
921 Sweetgum Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-2%)	10mo	$119,000	$116	77
2309 Cottonwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+8%)	10mo	$167,900	$149	56
2501 Woolmarket St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+6%)	13mo	$133,000	$120	56
9 Joanna Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,149 (+10%)	10mo	$170,000	$148	54
2614 George St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+4%)	8mo	$139,900	$130	54
504 Harvey Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+10%)	3mo	$115,000	$101	53
13204 Warren Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+10%)	1mo	$160,000	$139	48
10569 Sharp Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (+1%)	13mo	$139,900	$133	44
10741 E Bay Tree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+13%)	9mo	$142,999	$122	40
13372 Chris Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+9%)	10mo	$148,000	$130	40
11389 Jessica Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+15%)	3mo	$198,000	$166	36
10589 E Bay Tree Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+15%)	8mo	$152,200	$128	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,996
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $71,861
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.2 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $140,000 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 975
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $431	+0% $398	+5% $366	+10% $333
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $339	+0% $398	+5% $457	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $428	base $398	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11310 Fairfield Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,625	$1.50	94d	1	0.54mi
10669 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	71d	1	0.61mi
12271 Dedeaux Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1462	$1,350	$0.92	94d	1	0.62mi
12062 Jessica Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,700	$1.23	64d	1	0.65mi
13181 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,375	$1.16	94d	1	0.67mi
13242 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	94d	1	0.71mi
11312 Jessica Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,625	$1.49	71d	1	0.71mi
10596 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,200	$1.15	94d	1	0.73mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	94d	1	0.78mi
12040 Highland Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1019	$950	$0.93	64d	1	0.86mi
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	94d	1	1.33mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,147	$1.10	94d	1	1.39mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	64d	1	1.39mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	94d	1	1.45mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	71d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete drivewayDirect accessNo garage
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connectedElectricity connectedSewer listed as unknown (detail)
• Home design: Single-family houseOne storyFixer condition
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exteriorSlab foundationComposition/shingle roofBuilt in public records (year built source)
• Exterior features: Front porchRear porchPatioCourtyardGardenShed(s)Chain link and privacy fencingCity lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansDouble vanity in bathroomEat-in kitchenGranite countertopsStorage spaceDeadbolt locks

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-08-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-08-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-08-06
   days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-08-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-08-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-08-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $115,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    price $115,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    price $119,900 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,000 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $124,000 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-07-04
    days on market $124,000 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $124,000 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $124,000 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $124,000 Active 49 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,000 Active 48 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,000 Active 47 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $124,000 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-06-25
    days on market $124,000 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-06-23
    days on market $124,000 Active 42 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $124,000 Active 41 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $124,000 Active 38 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $124,000 Active 37 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $124,000 Active 36 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $124,000 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $124,000 Active 33 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $124,000 Active 32 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$751
• After-tax cash flow: $4,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,000–$46,800 screening

This fixer-upper has potential but requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Outdated and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and worn
• Major Flooring — Worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Modernizes space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 228,444 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete drivewayDirect accessNo garage
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connectedElectricity connectedSewer listed as unknown (detail)
• Home design: Single-family houseOne storyFixer condition
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exteriorSlab foundationComposition/shingle roofBuilt in public records (year built source)
• Exterior features: Front porchRear porchPatioCourtyardGardenShed(s)Chain link and privacy fencingCity lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeMicrowave
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansDouble vanity in bathroomEat-in kitchenGranite countertopsStorage spaceDeadbolt locks

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $124,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-11 Listed $139,000 MLSU
• 2004-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.