916 E Birch Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$107,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1983 Fair condition 7,840 sqft lot $103/sqft · 10% below area Est $183k · 41% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

916 E Birch Dr in Gulfport offers the opportunity to create something truly your own on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. This spacious fixer-upper is full of potential and features a functional layout with generous living spaces, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an additional bonus room that could be used as a home office, playroom, second living area, hobby space, or extra storage, and plenty of room to customize to fit your needs and vision. Inside, you'll find comfortable living areas filled with natural light, durable flooring throughout much of the home, ample kitchen cabinet space, and a layout designed for practical everyday living.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Converted garage
• Covered patio

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE WORKSHOP AREA
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.3% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crossroads Elementary School (math 32% / reading 26%, grade F, #192 of 375 statewide, top 52%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Harrison Central High School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #58 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Harrison County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $743 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,887 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,975
• List price: $107,500
• Delta: -39.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
921 Sweetgum Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-2%)	11mo	$119,000	$116	76
10594 Sharp Blvd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (+1%)	1mo	$144,500	$137	57
2309 Cottonwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+8%)	12mo	$167,900	$149	55
9 Joanna Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,149 (+10%)	12mo	$170,000	$148	53
2614 George St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+4%)	10mo	$139,900	$130	53
504 Harvey Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+10%)	4mo	$115,000	$101	52
13204 Warren Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+10%)	2mo	$160,000	$139	47
10569 Sharp Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (+1%)	15mo	$139,900	$133	43
10741 E Bay Tree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+13%)	11mo	$142,999	$122	39
13372 Chris Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+9%)	11mo	$148,000	$130	39
11389 Jessica Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+15%)	4mo	$198,000	$166	35
10589 E Bay Tree Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+15%)	9mo	$152,200	$128	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $16,752
• Equity at exit: $16,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $78,377
• Equity at exit: $9,295

Cash invested: $30,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $140,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$564
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $937

Max offer price $107,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $469	+0% $438	+5% $408	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $379	+0% $438	+5% $497	+10% $556
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $466	base $438	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,875
• Closing costs: $3,225
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11310 Fairfield Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,625	$1.50	139d	1	0.54mi
10669 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	116d	1	0.61mi
12271 Dedeaux Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1462	$1,350	$0.92	139d	1	0.62mi
12062 Jessica Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,700	$1.23	109d	1	0.65mi
13190 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	5d	1	0.65mi
13200 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,350	$1.26	5d	1	0.66mi
13181 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,375	$1.16	139d	1	0.67mi
13242 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	139d	1	0.71mi
11312 Jessica Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,625	$1.49	116d	1	0.71mi
10596 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,200	$1.15	139d	1	0.73mi
2605 Samuel St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	0.74mi
115 Cora Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.75mi
2711 E David Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,200	$1.06	5d	1	0.75mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	139d	1	0.78mi
12151 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	5d	1	0.79mi
12040 Highland Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1019	$950	$0.93	109d	1	0.86mi
13401 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	5d	1	0.91mi
12206 Breezeway Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,649	$1.34	5d	1	1.08mi
12338 Windward Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,300	$0.96	5d	1	1.15mi
709 Shirley Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,350	$1.04	5d	1	1.27mi
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	139d	1	1.33mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,147	$1.10	139d	1	1.39mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,460	$1.30	3d	1	1.39mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	109d	1	1.39mi
13056 Turtle Creek Pkwy Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,575	$1.20	5d	1	1.40mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,192	$1.09	2d	1	1.45mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	139d	1	1.45mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	116d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available (taxes listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public sewerWell waterCable availableElectricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Single family residenceHouseOne level
• Construction: Brick constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt in 1994–year source: public records
• Exterior features: Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room and dining areasTotal of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (utility availability implied)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $107,500 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $107,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $107,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on market $107,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on marketlisting id $110,000 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-08-13
    days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-08-12
    days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-08-11
    days on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-08-10
    days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-08-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-08-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-08-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-07-29
    days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-07-27
    days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
31. 2026-07-25
    days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-07-23
    days on market $115,000 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-07-22
    days on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
34. 2026-07-22
    price $115,000 Active 71 DOM
35. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,900 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
37. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
41. 2026-07-12
    days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
42. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
43. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
44. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
45. 2026-07-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 58 DOM
46. 2026-07-07
    price $119,900 Active 57 DOM
47. 2026-07-07
    days on market $124,000 Active 57 DOM
48. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,000 Active 56 DOM
49. 2026-07-05
    days on market $124,000 Active 55 DOM
50. 2026-07-04
    days on market $124,000 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,022
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,127
• Taxable income: $3,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $4,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,000–$46,800 screening

This fixer-upper has potential but requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Outdated and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and worn
• Major Flooring — Worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Modernizes space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harrison Central Elementary F MS #92/375 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 High Harrison Central High School F MS #58/197 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 228,444 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available (taxes listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public sewerWell waterCable availableElectricity availableNatural gas available
• Home design: Single family residenceHouseOne level
• Construction: Brick constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt in 1994–year source: public records
• Exterior features: Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room and dining areasTotal of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (utility availability implied)

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-28 Listed $110,000 MLSU
• 2026-08-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $115,000 MLSU
• 2026-07-07 Price Changed $119,900 MLSU
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $124,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-11 Listed $139,000 MLSU
• 2004-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.