2204 Smith Ave · Taylor, TX 76574

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot $133/sqft · 28% below area Est $297k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great potential in this quiet well-established neighborhood. There are lots of features which make this one a bargain! Two living areas, seperate dining area, large primary bedroom are added features which with paint and new flooring could make this one shine. There are lots of great entertainment features for the back yard, covered deck, shed, and greenhouse. Come and see what this home has to offer you!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Shed
• Two living areas

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• COVERED DECK
• SHED
• GREENHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Taylor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 318 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,901
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -27.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 Grace St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-9%)	0mo	$245,000	$167	78
3000 Meadow Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,648 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$158	73
1808 Cedarlawn St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+2%)	3mo	$315,000	$190	70
1309 Sloan St	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,648 (+2%)	1mo	$349,900	$212	67
914 Victoria St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,620 (0%)	3mo	$255,000	$157	66
2209 Lark Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,747 (+8%)	3mo	$395,000	$226	62
2100 Oaklawn Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,532 (-5%)	0mo	$315,000	$206	60
1709 W Lake Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (+9%)	2mo	$339,000	$191	60
1518 Lexington St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+9%)	0mo	$374,950	$212	53
1644 T H Johnson Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,786 (+10%)	2mo	$300,000	$168	52
2201 Whistling Way	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-13%)	3mo	$289,900	$205	51
1720 Prather St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,861 (+15%)	2mo	$384,950	$207	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-27,925
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,171
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76574

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,733/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $258	+0% $197	+5% $137	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $107	+0% $197	+5% $288	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $252	base $197	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2005 Whistling Way Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,050	$0.93	5d	1	0.35mi
1707 Lexington St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	25d	1	0.46mi
2109 Brewers Pl Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,950	$1.50	44d	1	0.49mi
3004 Don Hill Ln Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,800	$2.36	11d	1	0.56mi
1006 Cottonbowl Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.59mi
124 Marcel Ct Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,795	$1.15	44d	1	0.69mi
1215 Davis St Taylor, TX	4.0	2.5	2220	$3,200	$1.44	25d	1	0.69mi
180 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	4.0	3.0	1906	$1,950	$1.02	25d	1	0.76mi
108 Pivot Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	0.87mi
120 Onna St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,150	$1.24	4d	1	0.94mi
600 Kimbro St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,250	$1.52	25d	1	0.97mi
1117 W 4th St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,400	$1.05	18d	1	0.98mi
211 Tribute Blvd Unit Front Main Unit Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1900	$4,250	$2.24	2d	1	1.13mi
206 Oscar St Taylor, TX	4.0	1.5	1960	$2,100	$1.07	2d	1	1.17mi
108 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,850	$1.02	15d	1	1.17mi
120 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,925	$1.07	5d	1	1.19mi
140 Hartson Dr Taylor, TX	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $215,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $230,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $230,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great potential in this quiet well-established neighborhood. There are lots of features which make this one a bargain! Two living areas, seperate dining area, large primary bedroom are added features which with paint and new flooring could make this one shine. There are lots of great entertainment features for the back yard, covered deck, shed, and greenhouse. Come and see what this home has to offer you!

17. 2026-03-10
    price $250,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great potential in this quiet well-established neighborhood. There are lots of features which make this one a bargain! Two living areas, seperate dining area, large primary bedroom are added features which with paint and new flooring could make this one shine. There are lots of great entertainment features for the back yard, covered deck, shed, and greenhouse. Come and see what this home has to offer you!

18. 2026-02-13
    price $259,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great potential in this quiet well-established neighborhood. There are lots of features which make this one a bargain! Two living areas, seperate dining area, large primary bedroom are added features which with paint and new flooring could make this one shine. There are lots of great entertainment features for the back yard, covered deck, shed, and greenhouse. Come and see what this home has to offer you!

19. 2026-01-26
    listed $261,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great potential in this quiet well-established neighborhood. There are lots of features which make this one a bargain! Two living areas, seperate dining area, large primary bedroom are added features which with paint and new flooring could make this one shine. There are lots of great entertainment features for the back yard, covered deck, shed, and greenhouse. Come and see what this home has to offer you!

20. 2017-11-03
    soldstatus Sold 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Clean home in established neighborhood. Some updates. Metal roof. Updated flooring and some appliances. Nice trees and shade. 4 bedrooms and 2 living areas.

21. 2017-11-03
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Clean home in established neighborhood. Some updates. Metal roof. Updated flooring and some appliances. Nice trees and shade. 4 bedrooms and 2 living areas.

22. 2017-09-29
    status Pending - Taking Backups 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Clean home in established neighborhood. Some updates. Metal roof. Updated flooring and some appliances. Nice trees and shade. 4 bedrooms and 2 living areas.

23. 2017-08-29
    listed $170,000 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Clean home in established neighborhood. Some updates. Metal roof. Updated flooring and some appliances. Nice trees and shade. 4 bedrooms and 2 living areas.

24. 2005-03-02
    soldstatus
25. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus
26. 2005-01-25
    historical
27. 2004-09-23
    listed $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,733
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$246
• After-tax cash flow: $2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taylor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,330
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8606
• State rank: #726 of 826 in TX

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #7013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 20,242
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,242
• Household income: $78,568
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 22% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.71%
• Current HPI: 227.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $230,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $259,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $261,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-03 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2017-09-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2017-08-29 Listed $170,000 Unlock MLS
• 2005-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-01 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-01-25 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2004-09-23 Listed $117,500 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,733 · -14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.