17340 Sargent Rd SW #66 · Rochester, WA 98579

$87,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $94k · 7% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful two bedroom 2 bath. The home situated in a wonderful rural setting. It has been upgraded in the past few years and is move in ready. Covered parking, covered porch, and storage area. Water, Sewer, Garbage included in this peaceful park. Park approval is required.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered parking
• Storage area

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE AREA
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 2.1% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#327 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #97 of 291 in WA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.36%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17340 Sargent Rd SW #66	0.00mi	2/2.0	932 (-1%)	1mo	$82,000	$88	98
17340 Sargent Rd SW #57	0.09mi	2/1.0	924 (-2%)	12mo	$92,500	$100	79
7608 SW Scatter View Ln	0.47mi	2/1.0	840 (-10%)	15mo	$335,000	$399	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $45,836
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $117,060
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98579

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   price $87,000
3. 2025-11-08
   price $92,000
4. 2025-08-28
   listed $100,000 Active
5. 2024-01-25
   soldstatus $89,000 Closed
6. 2023-12-20
   status Pending
7. 2023-12-15
   listed $95,000 Active
8. 2022-08-22
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed
9. 2022-07-26
   status Pending
10. 2022-07-20
    listed $92,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $10,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,517
• After-tax cash flow: $8,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester School District
• NCES district ID: 5307470
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,231
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #97 of 291 in WA

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #12271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,907

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.25%
• Current HPI: 381.8969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $87,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $92,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed $100,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-25 Sold (MLS) $89,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Listed $92,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $566 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.