420 Lily Ln · Lakemoor, IL 60051

$224,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1937 0.31 ac lot Est $175k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming and move-in ready ranch situated on an oversized . 31-acre lot in Lakemoor! Offering approximately 1,000 square feet of comfortable living space, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home combines modern updates with everyday functionality. The spacious kitchen features newer cabinetry, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area perfect for casual meals and morning coffee. Neutral paint colors and updated flooring throughout create a bright, welcoming atmosphere that will complement any decor style. The 2nd bedroom can be used as a family room or flex space. Outside, you'll find one of the home's standout features-a huge yard with endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1937

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School bus service available; Property not currently leased
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two garage spaces in a detached garage; Concrete driveway; Garage with opener; owned garage and owned parking; Total parking for seven vehicles
• Utilities: Well water source; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 81–90 years ago; Estimated living area and main level area reported
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Unfinished basement (approx. 654 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Mature trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level); Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Wood laminate flooring throughout main living areas and bedrooms; Window blinds installed in main living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Basement is unfinished with partial crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in unit with utility sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Lakemoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#317 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mchenry Chsd 156 (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #244 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop Elem School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 461 students, 0% FRL); Mchenry Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #377 of 665 statewide, top 58%, 696 students, 0% FRL); Mchenry Community High School (2,222 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $175k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,217 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,858
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Tia Juana Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	6mo	$76,500	$77	71
313 Tia Juana Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	840 (-7%)	13mo	$230,000	$274	67
137 Park Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0	846 (-7%)	14mo	$55,000	$65	57
238 S Sheridan Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	952 (+5%)	13mo	$128,000	$134	56
724 W Friendly Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	789 (-13%)	7mo	$185,000	$234	44
112 S Sheridan Rd	0.39mi	2/1.5	1,016 (+12%)	21mo	$196,000	$193	42
819 Southside Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (-12%)	8mo	$195,000	$244	40
320 Glenwood Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (-14%)	8mo	$256,000	$328	38
816 West Blvd	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+13%)	20mo	$175,000	$171	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $111,912
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $338,230
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60051

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,277/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,168

Max offer price $195,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-104	+0% $-168	+5% $-232	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-245	+0% $-168	+5% $-91	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-111	base $-168	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 S Highland Dr Lakemoor, IL	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	17d	1	0.59mi
450 Sullivan Lake Blvd Lakemoor, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1009	$2,300	$2.28	0d	18	1.10mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,277 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,277 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$5,277
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$5,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mchenry Chsd 156
• NCES district ID: 1725320
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,681
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7188
• State rank: #244 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lakemoor

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #6294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakemoor, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,931

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.50%
• Current HPI: 612.07
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+28.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $224,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,277 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.