1241 Dowell Rd #66 · Grants Pass, OR 97527

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $54k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in a desirable 55+ community! This 2 bed, 1 bath home offers 784 sq ft of livable space with vinyl windows throughout. Move in now and update at your own pace. Enjoy the park directly across the street with easy access to pickleball courts, playground, and pedestrian paths. A fantastic value with tons of potential!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Pickleball courts
• Pedestrian paths

Tags

• VINYL WINDOWS
• PARK ACROSS STREET
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• PEDESTRIAN PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On leased land
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $487
• HOA & community: Senior community; No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Shared well water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Located in a park; One level; May remain in park
• Construction: Built in 1978; Metal skirting; Unknown foundation
• Exterior features: Membrane roof; Vinyl window frames; Paved road access; Adjoins public lands

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Shower/tub combo; Living room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.5% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkside Elementary (396 students, 70% FRL); South Middle School (reading 75%, 633 students, 69% FRL); Grants Pass High School (1,722 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 136.63%
• DSCR: 7.08
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,096
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1241 Dowell Rd #15	0.06mi	2/1.0	728 (-7%)	3mo	$25,000	$34	83
2395 Redwood Ave #23	0.57mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$54,000	$69	72
1241 Dowell Rd #28	0.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	714 (-9%)	8mo	$39,000	$55	70
1241 Dowell Rd #32	0.05mi	2/2.0	854 (+9%)	15mo	$37,500	$44	66
1241 Dowell Rd #72	0.14mi	2/1.0	689 (-12%)	10mo	$52,000	$75	65
2395 Redwood Ave #43	0.57mi	2/1.5	712 (-9%)	12mo	$50,000	$70	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $56,135
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.20×
• Total profit: $127,656
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $216/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $238

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1654 Kellenbeck Ave Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	43d	1	0.51mi
1754 Sun Glo Dr Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	888	$1,450	$1.63	43d	1	0.54mi
1783 Medart Ln Unit 1783 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	43d	1	0.75mi
1400 SW Kokanee Ln Unit 1402 Grants Pass, OR	2.0	1.0	962	$1,495	$1.55	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 334-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $216 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$216
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $11,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,803
• After-tax cash flow: $8,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Grants Pass

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #7900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants Pass, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• City population: 73,366
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $30,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $216 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.