433 20th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1920 1,975 sqft lot Est $125k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely charming 3 bedroom home with formal dining room and large eat-in kitchen, updates include: many windows, furnace, central air, roof, covered front porch, glass block windows, copper plumbing, 100 amp electric and vinyl siding! Fully fenced yard. Cute landscaping and nice backyard. Home has security system. Attic insulated & dry walled.

Key facts

• Sizable kitchen
• Metal roof
• Conveniently located

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• SIZABLE KITCHEN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Open porch; City street frontage; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot (25 x 79)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6; Includes a living room
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $80k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.96%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,172
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 21st St	0.04mi	3/1.0	992 (-10%)	5mo	$136,000	$137	78
1962 Falls St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-5%)	6mo	$76,000	$73	77
1923 Cudaback Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-8%)	2mo	$143,000	$142	68
609 25th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-5%)	2mo	$158,000	$152	67
2219 Forest Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,116 (+2%)	5mo	$155,000	$139	66
627 13th St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+2%)	4mo	$110,000	$98	65
724 17th St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,179 (+7%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	60
2762 Falls St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	3mo	$120,000	$114	59
442 26th St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+14%)	2mo	$130,000	$104	54
2487 Grand Ave	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (+8%)	1mo	$169,900	$143	52
544 30th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	964 (-12%)	3mo	$62,000	$64	48
3028 Welch Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	942 (-14%)	4mo	$99,000	$105	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $13,178
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $45,268
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	14d	1	0.11mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	43d	1	0.18mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.22mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.27mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.33mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.40mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	0.45mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.50mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.54mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.58mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.62mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.65mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	0.67mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	43d	1	0.76mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.85mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.87mi
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	0.92mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	23d	1	0.92mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	14d	1	0.94mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	1.14mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.20mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	1.27mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $79,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $32,500 WNYREIS
• 2021-01-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-12-07 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-01-02 Sold (MLS) $15,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-09-04 Listed $19,999 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · -19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.