1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1S-I · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$3,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 950 sqft · Timeshare · 126 Days on market

Built 1984 $3/sqft · 10% above area Est $3k · 10% over $210/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OCEAN VIEW/ FRONT and JETTY VIEW 5-Week TIMESHARE! Deeded Property. Watch the Ocean from this Park Place #1S, (sunny) South-side, Ground-floor unit with 2 BD, 1.75 BA, 950 sq. ft. Light and Bright Open Great Room with classic wood ceilings, electric fireplace, and a slider to the Deck. Views from the Living/Dining Room, Kitchen and Deck. Fully-equipped Kitchen with Stainless Steel Appliances, dishes, etc. Spacious Bedrooms: Bedroom #1 has a king-sized bed; Bedroom #2 has 2 twin beds. Stackable W/ D. Sleeps up to 6 people. Can trade on RCI. Unit #1S ~ Week I includes: March, May, July/Aug, Oct, Christmas some years. HOA Dues include: Community Club access; appliances; furniture; bldg. insura

Key facts

• Ocean view
• Electric fireplace
• Jetty view

Tags

• OCEAN VIEW
• JETTY VIEW
• GROUND-FLOOR UNIT
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $3k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 412.3% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $840 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $2,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 52.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 412.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 1450.11%
• DSCR: 65.52
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,717
• List price: $3,000
• Delta: 10.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 3S-E	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	4mo	$4,500	$5	97
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1N-I	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	8mo	$3,000	$3	93
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 2S-I	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	13mo	$2,500	$3	89
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 2S-B	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	18mo	$4,000	$4	85
1407 Ocean Shores Blvd SW Unit 1S-H	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	19mo	$2,250	$2	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 77.57×
• Total profit: $64,317
• Equity at exit: $447

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 167.52×
• Total profit: $139,875
• Equity at exit: $259

Cash invested: $840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $45/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $1,015

Break-even live

Break-even rent $292

Max offer price $3,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $750
• Closing costs: $90
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-01-15
   listed $3,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$168
• − Property taxes: −$45
• − Insurance: −$15
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$87
• Taxable income: $13,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,135
• After-tax cash flow: $9,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $3,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid