146 Brianna · Johnson City, TX 78636

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured public records · 195 Days on market

Built 2020 7,405 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $215k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2020 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Johnson City. Move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and fresh updates throughout. Owner financing options available with approved credit (WAC)

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 195 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 0.9% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#131 in TX, #3,919 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Johnson City ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #141 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10 units permitted in Blanco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blanco County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,212
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 1.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Brianna Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	4mo	$220,000	$140	85
114 Brianna Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	10mo	$219,995	$151	82
103 Spring View Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	2mo	$209,900	$146	82
139 Brianna Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	13mo	$230,000	$147	75
128 Brianna Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	17mo	$229,900	$158	73
142 Brianna Cir	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+11%)	14mo	$230,000	$137	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,169
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,990
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78636

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,782/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $270	+0% $208	+5% $146	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $120	+0% $208	+5% $296	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $264	base $208	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Dawn Dr Johnson City, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,300	$1.44	18d	1	0.08mi
114 Scofield Ave Unit 109 Johnson City, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	44d	1	0.55mi
205 N Avenue J Johnson City, TX	3.0	2.5	1959	$2,650	$1.35	44d	1	1.05mi
604 W Pecan Dr Johnson City, TX	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,950	$1.59	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Spacious 2020 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Johnson City. Move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and fresh updates throughout. Owner financing options available with approved credit (WAC)

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Option 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Spacious 2020 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Johnson City. Move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and fresh updates throughout. Owner financing options available with approved credit (WAC)

3. 2026-01-07
   price $219,000 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Spacious 2020 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Johnson City. Move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and fresh updates throughout. Owner financing options available with approved credit (WAC)

4. 2025-11-04
   listed $220,900 New 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Spacious 2020 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Johnson City. Move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and fresh updates throughout. Owner financing options available with approved credit (WAC)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,782
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$1,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$245
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824840
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,854
• Composite: 44.47/100
• National rank: #2803
• State rank: #141 of 826 in TX

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #3919

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,842

Population outlook (Blanco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,277 people
• By 2030: 12,790 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 13,520 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 13,976 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 15,049 · +22.6%
• By 2100: 15,057 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blanco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.2% · R 75.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+52.4 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.91%
• Current HPI: 277.8899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $219,000 LERA
• 2025-11-04 Listed $220,900 LERA

Property tax history

+30.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,782 · +28.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.