6542 Newcastle Ave · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$314,615

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 5,619 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Pecos - the 1 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5-3 bathroom floor plan thoughtfully designed for everyday living. As you walk into the home, you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms and their accompanying full bathroom located near the entrance offering privacy for family or guests. Make your way through the home into the open-space main living area. Here you'll find the chef-inspired kitchen complete with an abundance of cabinet space, an island with bar top seating, and a corner pantry to maximize storage. The dining room is the focal point of the space providing a cozy space to convene over meals. Secluded in the rear of the home is the master suite, offering a private retreat at the end of the night. A spa-inspired ensuite with double vanities and a large walk in closet provide a seamless morning while getting ready for the day. Additional highlights of the Pecos include a two-car garage with extra storage space and a covered backyard patio fit for outdoor living. Highlights of this home Secluded master bedroom offers private oasis Tall ceilings and windows allow an abundance of natural light to flood the space Personalized options include elevated ceiling beams, additional bedrooms and bathrooms, barn doors in the master, and an extended patio

Key facts

• Master suite
• Corner pantry
• Spa inspired ensuite

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• CORNER PANTRY
• MASTER SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED ENSUITE
• COVERED BACKYARD PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: GPS

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Yard on a 0.13-acre lot (0 to 0.24 acre range); Located in the METRO EVOLUTION 2 subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (718 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (803 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,919 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,090
• Equity at exit: $46,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-95,144
• Equity at exit: $27,202

Cash invested: $88,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,719/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $254,829

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-304	+0% $-413	+5% $-522	+10% $-631
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-501	+0% $-413	+5% $-325	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-333	base $-413	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,654
• Closing costs: $9,438
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	15d	1	0.53mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	45d	1	1.34mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $314,615 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,615 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,615 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,615 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,615 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $314,615 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,615 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,615 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,615 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,615 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $314,615 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,625 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,625 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,625 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $309,625 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    listed $309,625 Active 1006-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $309,625 Active 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    Meet the Pecos - the 1 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5-3 bathroom floor plan thoughtfully designed for everyday living. As you walk into the home, you'll find 2 secondary bedrooms and their accompanying full bathroom located near the entrance offering privacy for family or guests. Make your way through the home into the open-space main living area. Here you'll find the chef-inspired kitchen complete with an abundance of cabinet space, an island with bar top seating, and a corner pantry to maximize storage. The dining room is the focal point of the space providing a cozy space to convene over meals. Secluded in the rear of the home is the master suite, offering a private retreat at the end of the night. A spa-inspired ensuite with double vanities and a large walk in closet provide a seamless morning while getting ready for the day. Additional highlights of the Pecos include a two-car garage with extra storage space and a covered backyard patio fit for outdoor living. Highlights of this home Secluded master bedroom offers private oasis Tall ceilings and windows allow an abundance of natural light to flood the space Personalized options include elevated ceiling beams, additional bedrooms and bathrooms, barn doors in the master, and an extended patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,623
• − Property taxes: −$4,719
• − Insurance: −$1,573
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$9,152
• Taxable loss: −$10,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $314,615 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $314,615 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-03 Listed $309,625 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-02 Listed $309,625 Zillow