123 Lost Spur Spur Unit 6 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Condo · 73 Days on market

Built 1982 $192/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an entry-level condo positioned on the 18th hole of Slick Rock Golf Course. Enjoy scenic views and the convenience of being just a short walk to the Slick Rock Clubhouse and driving range. This property makes an ideal weekend golf retreat, offering easy access to the premier amenities of Horseshoe Bay. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Horseshoe Bay golf at an attractive price point.

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $180,019 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,793
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -3.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,652
• Equity at exit: $76,172

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,636
• Equity at exit: $100,733

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $201,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-84	+0% $-162	+5% $-240	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-233	+0% $-162	+5% $-91	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-105	base $-162	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.17mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.18mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	25d	1	0.28mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.38mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	0.42mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.43mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	0.47mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.67mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	25d	2	0.69mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	0.69mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.86mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	0.86mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	0.88mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	0.89mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.97mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $225,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This is an entry-level condo positioned on the 18th hole of Slick Rock Golf Course. Enjoy scenic views and the convenience of being just a short walk to the Slick Rock Clubhouse and driving range. This property makes an ideal weekend golf retreat, offering easy access to the premier amenities of Horseshoe Bay. Don’t miss your chance to own a piece of Horseshoe Bay golf at an attractive price point.

19. 2025-01-16
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $225,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-16 Listed — Unlock MLS