280 Hall Hill Rd · Pine Plains, NY 12502

$249,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1956 3.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Renovated one bedroom, one bathroom with office space, on 3.37 acres. Over the past 2-3 years; new roof, well pump and tank, windows, doors, siding, appliances, oil tank, water heater, breaker box, shed and gazebo. Large parcel on a country road. Great weekend retreat or year round residence.

Key facts

• 3.37 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single wide; Manufactured home
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms indicate 4 rooms (includes living spaces and bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Home office; Scuttle attic; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in Pine Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $249k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $156,129
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $443,581
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12502

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $249,000 Active 296-char remark
18. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus $82,000
19. 2009-11-24
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,405 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$803/yr (+$67/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $3,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 1,019

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.94%
• Current HPI: 489.5814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+352.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.